ES review & plan
Monday, 26 October 2026 · EPZ26 (Dec ES) · Pre-market read
Clock note: UK clocks went back to GMT on Sunday. US doesn't change until Sunday Nov 1. This week only, ES RTH is 13:30-20:00 UK (shifted 1hr earlier from standard 14:30-21:00). Reverts next week.
Regime
The weekly 20MA finally broke on Friday. Oct 23 was another trend-down day: 48pt range, closed 7660.75 (official settle 7659.75) — below weekly 20MA 7696. Three straight weekly MA tests held across last week (Mon, Tue, Thu overnight), but Friday pushed through on continued post-TSLA/META weakness. First confirmed structural break of the HTF line in six weeks.
Weekly recap (Oct 19-23): Mon balance → Tue V-shape → Wed trend-up (short covering) → Thu overnight gap-down on TSLA/META → Fri trend-down continuation through weekly MA. Net week change ~-45pt but with huge intraweek swings (ONH 7812 Wed to ONL 7648 Fri = 164pt total range).
Overnight rebounded. ONH 7698.50 is RIGHT AT the broken weekly MA 7696 cluster. ONL 7651.75. Range 46.75pt. Current 7683.50 upper half of range. LONG inventory (-65%) — settle below ON midpoint, overnight explored UP from Fri close.
Vol regime 1.11 — mild expansion. ATR(10) 74.85 (vs 65 two weeks ago). High-vol regime fully entrenched. Expect fast moves on event catalysts this week.
Pre-Session Context
Friday: Trend-down day. Gap-down open, sellers through to lows, closed near lows below weekly MA. b-shape profile confirmed liquidation.
Overnight: Classic recovery bounce. 47pt range higher. Current 7683.50 sits just below the broken weekly 20MA 7696. First test of broken MA from below is a key signal: hold = support reclaim possible, reject = HTF break confirmed.
Open type: Open 7680-7690 likely given current price. Watch which side of VWAP (will develop live) holds first 30 min. Long inventory suggests sellers at open to rebalance — but the overnight rebound structure argues for buyers trying to retest the broken MA.
Tempo tells: Reject at 7696-7698 cluster with sellers through 7675 ON HB = structural break confirmed, path toward 7651 ONL / 7648 Fri L. Reclaim 7696 with buyers through 7700 = short-cover squeeze back toward 7735 Mon close / 7759 Tue close. Grind in 7675-7695 = balance day inside Fri's VA.
Week Ahead — FOMC + Big Tech + Thu Data Cluster
| Day | UK Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders (Sep) | Medium · pre-RTH |
| Mon | 14:00 | CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) · New Home Sales | Medium |
| Tue AMC | — | Mag 7 earnings begin (watch calendar) | High |
| Wed | 18:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | Flat into event |
| Wed | 18:30 | Fed Press Conference (Powell) | Highest-impact move |
| Thu | 12:30 | Core PCE + GDP Advance Q3 + PCE + Personal Spending + Claims (all simultaneous) | Biggest data minute of quarter |
| Fri | 12:30 | Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q3) | High · wage inflation |
| Fri | 13:45 | Chicago PMI (Oct) | Low-medium |
Risk management: Mon-Tue tradeable with normal setups. Wed afternoon → flat into FOMC. Thu avoid pre-12:30 UK exposure; the Core PCE + GDP + PCE cluster has moved ES 30-50pt on single releases. Fri ECI + month-end flows.
Key Levels
| Type | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| R | 7812.25 | Wed Oct 21 RTH High · last week swing H |
| R | 7778 | 20DMA (far overhead) |
| R | 7764 | 50DMA (far overhead) |
| R | 7742.50 | Thursday RTH High |
| R | 7706.25 | Thursday close |
| R | 7698.50 | Overnight High · ZF-ONF watch |
| R | 7697.25 | Friday RTH High |
| R | 7696 | Weekly 20MA (BROKEN · now overhead) |
| R | 7687.12 | Overnight Half-Back |
| · | 7683.50 | Current (pre-RTH) |
| R | 7679 | Friday VAH |
| R | 7675.76 | Friday Full-Session VWAP |
| R | 7672.16 | Friday RTH VWAP |
| S | 7665.75 | Friday POC |
| S | 7660.75 | Friday RTH close |
| S | 7659.75 | Friday settle (official) |
| S | 7653.50 | Friday VAL |
| S | 7651.75 | Overnight Low · ZF-ONF watch |
| S | 7648.50 | Friday RTH Low |
| S | ~7600 | Round number · next downside objective |
Scenarios
Primary — Test and reject at broken weekly MA 7696-7698. Overnight has already carried price up to the ONH / broken MA / Fri RTH H cluster at 7696-7698. First RTH test is the key: if sellers reject at the stacked overhead, that's confirmation of HTF break with structural shift to lower highs. ZF-ONF short at ONH 7698.50 if first test fails with exhaustion signals. Target Fri settle 7660 / POC 7666.
Secondary — Break ONL 7651 and Fri RTH L 7648, flush toward 7600. If buyers fail to defend the 7651-7648 cluster, bears take control with no HTF support until 7600 round. ZF-ONF long only if first test shows exhaustion; otherwise trade with the break not against it.
Low prob — Reclaim weekly MA 7696, squeeze toward 7706 Thu close / 7742 Thu RTH H. Strong buying through the overhead cluster would mark a false break of the weekly MA and short-cover squeeze potential. Pre-FOMC positioning could support this. Requires sustained buyers above 7700 with volume.
Event week risk: No carries into FOMC Wed 18:00. No AM exposure Thu into Core PCE + GDP 12:30. Weekly MA break is the structural story but all bets off on Wed-Thu depending on Fed tone and data prints.
This is not financial advice. All zones and scenarios are personal preparation for my own trading. Trade at your own risk.
ES review & plan
Thursday, 22 October 2026 · EPZ26 (Dec ES) · Pre-market read
Review — Zones & Last 3 Sessions
The chart defines this week's playing field between two tight clusters:
Upper resistance band 7791-7802: three stacked HTF references within 10 points — 20/10 RTH High 7791.75, ONH 7793, and 15/10 RTH High 7802.00. Wednesday rallied right into this band and closed 7799 at the top of it. The thin value above the band on prior days suggests these are "poor highs" prone to retest, not strong tops.
Mid-range pivot 7756.25 (ONL / recurring VAH): this level has acted as a flip pivot 4+ times in the past two weeks — Oct 20's VAH, Oct 16's VAH, prior overnight low. Behaviour tell: when price trades THROUGH 7756 with momentum, trend tends to continue; when it stalls here with slow tempo, it fades back.
Lower support band 7709-7717 at the weekly 20MA 7703: three structural support lines within 14 points — 20/10 RTH low 7709.75, 15/10 RTH low 7717.00, and weekly 20MA 7703. This zone has been defended FOUR times in the past week (Oct 15 flush, Oct 20 V-shape pivot, Oct 21 ETH, Thu Oct 22 overnight at 7710.25). Each test with V-shape recovery into the following session. Thin value at these lows = poor lows prone to retest, but the pattern of defence is clear so far.
Session narrative Oct 20 → Oct 22 overnight:
- Mon Oct 19: Quiet balance 7727-7773. First rest after last week's trend days.
- Tue Oct 20: V-shape day. Gap-down tested 7710 (right at weekly 20MA cluster), reversed hard, rallied to 7791, closed 7759.
- Wed Oct 21: Trend-up day on short covering ahead of TSLA/META. Opened above daily MAs, rallied through 20/10 RTH High 7791 and 15/10 RTH High 7802, hit 7812, closed 7799 near the top of the upper cluster.
- Overnight into Thu: TSLA/META reactions triggered a 89pt flush from 7799 to 7710.25 — hit the lower cluster EXACTLY, bounced to current 7723-7726. Fourth test of the weekly MA area, defended again.
What this tells us for today: market is caught between two well-defined clusters. All week has rhymed with "flush to lower band → V-shape recover → grind up to upper band → rejection." Today's test of the lower band is the fourth in a week. Either the pattern repeats (another V-recover setup toward 7756 pivot, then upper band) OR the fourth test is where buyers finally give up and the weekly 20MA 7703 breaks structurally. The thin value at both ends means fast moves if either cluster breaks.
Regime
Wednesday rallied into TSLA/META, then tech earnings sank the overnight. Wed closed 7799 (trend-up, p-shape, +40 from open). Overnight gapped down to 7710 — 89pt flush. Current 7726 after modest rebound off the low.
Weekly 20MA tested a THIRD time this week. Overnight low 7710 right at the 7700 cluster. Monday low, Tuesday low, and now Thursday overnight all defended at this zone. The HTF line is holding, but each test is a tell.
Short overnight inventory (+100%). Settle sits above the entire overnight range — base case counter-auction UP at open as buyers rebalance. Daily MAs now overhead again (20DMA 7789, 50DMA 7772).
Vol regime 1.08 — mild expansion. ATR(10) 71.69. Fourth 80pt+ overnight range in a week. High-vol regime fully entrenched.
Pre-Session Context
Wednesday: Trend-up day on short covering ahead of tech earnings. Opened above daily MAs, held, rallied to 7812, closed 7799. Profile p-shape — the short-covering tell.
Overnight (post-earnings): Clean gap-down from 7799. Flushed 89pt to 7710 (right at weekly 20MA defence), rebounded ~16pt to current 7726. Classic b-shape setup forming on reaction.
Open type: Open likely 7720-7735 depending on first ticks. Short inventory + classic counter-auction setup = buyers likely into first hour toward ON HB 7754 / Tuesday close 7759. Watch which side of 7735 Monday close holds first.
Tempo tells: Slow absorption at ON low area 7710 with buyers through 7735 = counter-auction playing out, target 7754-7772 50DMA zone. Fast rejection at 7735-7745 with sellers back through 7710 = tech earnings pain carries on, next test is weekly MA 7703 then 7676 Friday low. Vertical move through 7772 to reclaim 50DMA = short-cover rally fully resumes.
Earnings — Thursday Impact
| Timing | Tickers | Index relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Overnight | TSLA, META, IBM, LRCX, TXN | Already in the price — overnight gap already reacted |
| Thu BMO | LMT, CMCSA, PG, BX, DOW, HBAN | Staples + defence + credit · PG and BX most watched |
| Thu AMC | BE, DECK, NEM, VRSN, WDC | Mid-cap tech + consumer discretionary |
| Fri BMO | AXP, SLB | Credit + energy |
Tech earnings pain already reflected in overnight gap. Today's open is the market deciding whether yesterday's pain is a one-day event or a continuation signal. PG and BX pre-market can either reinforce the risk-off tone or offer defensive rotation support.
Key Levels
| Type | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| R | 7812.25 | Wednesday RTH High |
| R | 7810.50 | Wednesday VAH |
| R | 7803.25 | Friday RTH High |
| R | 7802.00 | Wednesday POC |
| R | 7799.00 | Wednesday close |
| R | 7798.75 | Overnight High · stacked |
| R | 7789 | 20DMA (lost overnight) |
| R | 7786.58 | Wednesday RTH VWAP |
| R | 7777.50 | Wednesday VAL |
| R | 7772 | 50DMA (lost overnight) |
| R | 7759.00 | Tuesday close |
| R | 7754.50 | Overnight Half-Back |
| R | 7735.00 | Monday close · immediate pivot |
| · | 7726.00 | Current (pre-RTH) |
| S | 7710.25 | Overnight Low = Tuesday RTH Low · ZF-ONF watch |
| S | 7703 | Weekly 20MA · HTF defence (3rd test this week) |
| S | 7676 – 7677 | Friday RTH Low cluster · last structural floor |
Scenarios
Primary — Counter-auction UP from 7710-7726 toward 7754 ON HB / 7772 50DMA. Short overnight inventory + overnight already flushed 89pt + weekly MA defended = buyers rebalance at open. First upside objective Monday close 7735, then Tuesday close 7759, then 7772 50DMA. ZF-R short setup activates at 7772 or Wednesday VAL 7777 if tempo stalls.
Secondary — Fail at 7735, retest ONL 7710 then weekly MA 7703. No counter-auction, tech earnings pain continues. Watch for ZF-ONF long at 7710/7703 cluster on first test with exhaustion signals. Below 7703 = weekly MA finally breaks, flush toward Friday low 7676.
Low prob — V-shape reversal back toward 7772 50DMA / 7799 Wed close. Market shrugs off tech earnings pain quickly, buyers aggressive. Would require strong defensive-sector earnings reactions (PG, BX) to catalyse. Market has been in two-day flush/recover rhythm all week — this would be another one.
Pattern note: This week has rhymed with last week — big down day, V-shape recover, grind higher, then flush again. Three weekly MA tests held so far. Fourth test (if it comes) is where the pattern typically either confirms or breaks.
This is not financial advice. All zones and scenarios are personal preparation for my own trading. Trade at your own risk.
ES review & plan
Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · EPZ26 (Dec ES) · Pre-market read
Regime
Tuesday was another V-shape recovery. Gapped down to 7710, held the weekly 20MA zone (7700-7710), then rallied hard to 7791 close 7759 (+32 from the low). 81pt range, 115% ATR10. Second recovery off weekly MA defence in a week.
Overnight tight and elevated. 36pt range 7757-7793 — narrowest in a week. Current 7780.50 upper half. Long inventory (settle 7759 below ON mid 7775). 20DMA at 7787 sits right at ONH 7793 — stacked overhead resistance.
Tech earnings tonight. TSLA + META + IBM + LRCX + TXN all AMC. Biggest earnings night of the quarter. Expect low vol into the close, then overnight gap risk into Thursday.
Vol regime 1.12 — mild expansion. ATR(10) 72.85. Market has recovered 83pt from Friday close 7703 in two sessions. Reclaim of 7787 20DMA + 7773 50DMA would mark structural reversal.
Pre-Session Context
Tuesday: V-shape day. Gap-down tested 7710 (right at weekly 20MA 7700 cluster), reversed, rallied to 7791 near 20DMA, closed 7759 in the middle. Buyers defended the HTF line.
Overnight: Tight 36pt rotation above settle. Price sits in upper half, approaching ONH + 20DMA cluster at 7787-7793. Long inventory = base-case counter-auction DOWN at open to rebalance.
Open type: Open near 7778-7785. Watch which side of 20DMA 7787 and ONH 7793 holds. Reject at cluster = fade back toward Tuesday close 7759 / POC 7754. Clean break and hold above = structural shift, next upside objective 7803 Friday RTH high.
Tempo tells: Fast rejection at 7787-7793 with sellers through 7775 overnight HB = classic ZF-ONF short setup. Grind through 7793 with buyers absorbing = range extension to 7803 then 7820. Below 7745 Tuesday VAL = Tuesday's recovery failing, back toward 7710 weekly MA test.
Earnings — High Impact
| Timing | Tickers | Index relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Wed BMO | ABT, T, DHR, TMO, PM, ELV, CME | Healthcare + staples + telco |
| Wed AMC | TSLA, META, IBM, LRCX, TXN | Biggest night of the quarter · expect large Thu gap |
| Thu BMO | LMT, CMCSA, PG, BX, DOW | Staples + defence |
| Fri BMO | AXP, SLB | Credit + energy |
Risk management: Don't carry size into Wed close. TSLA + META are both routinely 5%+ movers on earnings. Combined impact can drive 1-2% overnight gap in ES. If still trading late Wed afternoon, consider flat or use options rather than futures to express a view.
Key Levels
| Type | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| R | 7897.50 | Oct 6 swing high · weekly R |
| R | 7803.25 | Friday RTH High |
| R | 7793 | Overnight High · ZF-ONF watch |
| R | 7791.50 | Tuesday RTH High |
| R | 7787 | 20DMA · stacked with ONH/Tue H |
| · | 7780.50 | Current (pre-RTH) |
| R | 7775 | Overnight Half-Back |
| R | 7773 | 50DMA (just below 20DMA) |
| R | 7771.25 | Tuesday VAH |
| S | 7759.00 | Tuesday close |
| S | 7757 | Overnight Low · ZF-ONF watch |
| S | 7754.25 | Tuesday POC |
| S | 7745.25 | Tuesday VAL |
| S | 7735.00 | Monday close |
| S | 7710.25 | Tuesday RTH Low · V-shape pivot |
| S | 7701 | Weekly 20MA · HTF defence (held Tue) |
| S | 7676 – 7677 | Friday RTH Low cluster · last structural floor |
Scenarios
Primary — Rejection at 7787-7793 cluster, fade back to Tuesday VA. Long overnight inventory + stacked overhead resistance = counter-auction DOWN at open. ZF-ONF short setup if ONH 7793 tested and fails. Target Tuesday close 7759 / POC 7754 cluster. Base case given inventory and overhead.
Secondary — Breakout through 7793, reclaim daily MAs, run to 7803. Buyers absorb at the overhead cluster, break through 20DMA + 50DMA together. Marks structural reversal of last week's break. First objective 7803 Friday RTH high, then 7820.
Low prob — Fail at 7745 Tue VAL, retest 7710 Tue low. Sellers push through Tuesday VA bottom, test Tuesday's low at 7710 (weekly MA defence line). V-shape failure would be bearish going into tech earnings tonight.
Tech earnings risk management: Afternoon tempo likely dries up as traders de-risk into TSLA + META. Reduce size from midday onwards. Flat into Wed close recommended. Thu will be a gap-and-react day.
This is not financial advice. All zones and scenarios are personal preparation for my own trading. Trade at your own risk.
ES review & prep
Yesterday’s overnight high failure main trade opportunity (left). Zones for today (right).
Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · EPZ26 (Dec ES) · Pre-market read
Regime
Monday was a quiet balance day inside Friday's VA. 45.75pt range (64% of ATR10). Opened 7741, rotated 7727-7773, closed 7735. First rest after three big trend days (Tue -97pt, Wed +84pt, Fri -127pt).
Overnight drifting lower. 48.25pt rotation 7704.50-7752.75. Current 7724.75 near overnight low. Weekly 20MA at 7700 is sitting right at the overnight low area — critical HTF support test building.
Earnings week starts in earnest. Pre-market: GE, GM, RTX, MMM, NOC — industrials heavy. AMC: NFLX, SPCX, ISRG, COF. Big Wednesday night ahead (TSLA + META).
Vol regime 1.12 — mild expansion. ATR(10) 71.92. High-vol state persists after last week's expansion days. Monday's quiet day didn't reset ATR; next big move could come fast.
Pre-Session Context
Monday: Balance day inside Friday's wide VA. b-shape classification but on narrow range — shape label less meaningful than the day_type (balance). Buyers defended 7727, sellers capped at 7773.
Overnight: 48pt rotation lower. Price now below Monday close and ON half-back. Weekly 20MA 7700 just below ONL 7704.50 — one more leg down puts the HTF support in play.
Open type: Open near 7725-7735 likely. Watch which side of Monday close 7735 holds in first 30 min. GE/RTX/MMM earnings reactions could inject gap volatility — see Earnings section.
Tempo tells: Hold above Monday close 7735 with slow buying = range extension toward Monday H 7773 / ONH 7753. Reject at 7735 with sellers through = test weekly 20MA 7700 and ONL 7704. Below weekly 20MA with volume = structural break, flush toward 7676 Friday low cluster.
Earnings — High Impact
| Timing | Tickers | Index relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Tue BMO | GE, GM, RTX, MMM, NOC, HAL, HAS | Industrials heavy · GE and RTX most market-moving |
| Tue AMC | NFLX, SPCX, ISRG, UAL, COF, CB | Streaming / health / airlines / financials |
| Wed AMC | TSLA, META, IBM, LRCX, TXN | Biggest night of the week — expect Thu gap |
| Thu BMO | LMT, CMCSA, PG, BX, DOW | Staples + defence |
Industrials pre-open could set tone for first hour. Watch GE and RTX reactions — both heavy index weights and often guide sector sentiment. If both beat strongly, that's a tailwind for the open; miss or weak guide = add to selling pressure.
Key Levels
| Type | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| R | 7897.50 | Oct 6 swing high · weekly R |
| R | 7803.25 | Friday RTH High |
| R | 7791 | 20DMA (lost) |
| R | 7774 | 50DMA (lost) |
| R | 7773.25 | Monday RTH High |
| R | 7756 | Friday VAH |
| R | 7752.75 | Overnight High · Mon VAH · ZF-ONF watch |
| R | 7746.78 | Monday RTH VWAP |
| R | 7742.50 | Monday POC |
| R | 7735.00 | Monday close · immediate pivot |
| · | 7724.75 | Current (pre-RTH) |
| S | 7728.63 | Overnight Half-Back |
| S | 7727.50 | Monday RTH Low |
| S | 7717.25 | Oct 15 RTH Low · prior flush pivot |
| S | 7704.50 | Overnight Low · ZF-ONF watch |
| S | 7703.00 | Friday close |
| S | 7704.25 | Friday Settle (official) |
| S | 7701.50 | Friday POC |
| S | 7700 | Weekly 20MA · HTF defence (stacked at 7700-7705) |
| S | 7677 – 7676 | Friday RTH Low cluster |
| S | ~7600 | Round number / next structural support below weekly MA |
Scenarios
Primary — Test of 7700-7705 stacked support band. Overnight drift continues through 7704 ONL into the weekly MA + Friday settle cluster. First test is a ZF-ONF long setup if sellers show first exhaustion (slow tempo, excess print, volume divergence). Target 7735 Monday close on bounce.
Secondary — Break weekly 20MA 7700, flush to 7676 Friday low cluster. Sellers push through the stacked support band without hesitation. Below 7676 opens structural break territory. Catalyst risk: GE/RTX earnings miss adds to pressure.
Low prob — Reclaim 7735 Monday close, run to 7753 ONH. Industrial earnings beats trigger risk-on open, buyers through Monday close, test ONH 7752.75 / Monday VAH 7752. ZF-R short setup activates at that cluster if tempo stalls. Requires strong pre-market gap-up catalyst.
Earnings risk layering: GE/RTX/MMM pre-market reactions set the tone for the first hour. NFLX AMC = overnight gap risk into Wednesday. TSLA + META Wednesday night = don't carry size into Wed close.
This is not financial advice. All zones and scenarios are personal preparation for my own trading. Trade at your own risk.
ES Prep
Monday, 19 October 2026 · EPZ26 (Dec ES) · Pre-market read
Regime
Friday was a big trend-down day. 127.25pt range (177% of ATR10). Gapped up early, then sold off hard — H 7803.25, L 7676.00, settle 7704.25 (-86.75). Classic b-shape (long liquidation): value 7676-7756, POC 7701.
Last week pattern: three trend-days of five, two of them massive down days (Tue 96pt, Fri 127pt). Wednesday's p-shape short-cover bounce (84pt up) didn't hold — Thursday hot inflation and Friday follow-through drove through everything. Weekly 20MA at 7689.75 was tested on Friday close and remains THE key HTF support just below.
Overnight rebounded then faded. ONH 7768.50 / ONL 7677.00 — 91.5pt rotation. Peaked early at 7768 then drifted back; current 7735.25 near ON midpoint 7722.75. Settle 7704.25 sits below ON midpoint — balanced classification but with early-morning fade from the overnight high taking buyers' edge away.
Vol regime 1.15 — mild expansion. ATR(10) 72.1 (up from 66 last week). High-vol regime likely persists. Don't anticipate quiet balance day based on vol alone.
Pre-Session Context
Friday: Trend-day-down. Gap-up open faded immediately, sellers in control bell to close. Weekly 20MA tested on close.
Overnight (Sunday Globex): 91.5pt rotation 7677-7768. Early rebound off Friday lows faded during Monday morning — price now 7735 near ON midpoint, not upper half as it was earlier.
Open type: Open likely near 7730-7740 after morning drift. Watch which side of ON midpoint 7722.75 and settle 7704.25 holds. Overnight has already covered 91pt (well over 1 ATR) — expect intraday consolidation rather than another expansion day, but regime is still high-vol.
Tempo tells: Slow absorption at Friday VAH 7756 / 20DMA 7796 zone with buyers stepping = continuation up to broken daily MAs. Rejection at 7756 with fast sellers back toward POC 7701 = Friday pattern resumes, retest weekly 20MA 7690. Below weekly 20MA = structural break, next support ~7600 round number / fib extensions.
Key Levels
| Type | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| R | 7897.50 | Recent swing high (Oct 6) · weekly R |
| R | 7879.75 | Last week ETH High (Oct 14 ON) |
| R | 7837.75 | Oct 14 RTH High · recent swing |
| R | 7803.25 | Friday RTH High |
| R | 7801.75 | Oct 15 RTH High · stacked ref |
| R | 7796 | 20DMA (lost) |
| R | 7776 | 50DMA (lost) |
| R | 7768.50 | Overnight High · ZF-ONF watch |
| R | 7756 | Friday VAH |
| · | 7735.25 | Current (pre-RTH, drifting lower) |
| R | 7738.34 | Friday Full-Session VWAP |
| R | 7731.87 | Friday RTH VWAP |
| S | 7722.75 | Overnight Half-Back |
| S | 7717.25 | Oct 15 RTH Low · prior flush pivot |
| S | 7704.25 | Friday Settle (official) |
| S | 7701.50 | Friday POC |
| S | 7689.75 | Weekly 20MA · HTF defence (tested Fri) |
| S | 7677.00 – 7676.00 | ONL + Friday RTH Low cluster · ZF-ONF watch |
| S | 7672.75 | Oct 1 RTH Low · prior swing support |
| S | ~7600 | Round number / next structural support below weekly MA |
Scenarios
Primary — Rebound continuation to 7756-7768 resistance band. Overnight strength carries into RTH open. First upside objective VAH 7756, then ONH 7768. Fade zone if tempo stalls at ONH (ZF-ONF short setup). Base case given overnight rotation already covered 91pt — buyers have shown hand.
Secondary — Rejection at 7756-7768, retest Friday lows. Sellers return at Friday VAH / ONH cluster. Price grinds back toward settle 7704 / POC 7701. Below 7690 weekly 20MA = structural break, deeper flush toward 7600. Last week's pattern argues this is still live.
Low prob — Breakout through 7768 to reclaim daily MAs. Sustained buying through ONH, breaks through 7779 50DMA to test 7796 20DMA. Would need strong tempo and volume confirmation. After two massive down days, dip-buyers may be positioned for this — but countering last week's structural weakness is a tall order.
High-vol regime persists (ATR10 72pt, up from 66). Size down accordingly. Weekly 20MA 7690 is the line in the sand — above = pullback within trend, below = regime change.
This is not financial advice. All zones and scenarios are personal preparation for my own trading. Trade at your own risk.
ES Prep
Friday, 16 October 2026 · EPZ26 (Dec ES) · Pre-market read
Regime
Yesterday was a trend-day-up, built on short covering. 84.5pt range (128% of ATR10). Opened with a gap-down to 7735.75, flushed to 7717.25, then reversed hard — closed at 7790.75 near the highs. Classic p-shape profile (short covering): value 7758-7798, POC 7772.
Both daily MAs reclaimed. Price now ABOVE 20DMA 7796 and 50DMA 7779. Yesterday's b-shape (long liquidation) → today's p-shape (short covering) is the textbook two-day flush-and-recover sequence.
Overnight tight, balanced. 34.75pt rotation between 7774.75 and 7809.50, inventory balanced. Current 7801.25 — upper half of ON range, holding above yesterday's close and 20DMA.
Vol regime 1.03 — neutral. ATR(10) 65.97. Two expansion days in a row (151% then 128%). Expect normalisation into the weekend.
Pre-Session Context
Yesterday: Trend-day-up after flush. Hot inflation data triggered opening sell, then violent short cover drove recovery through broken daily MAs.
Overnight: Narrow 34pt rotation, balanced inventory. ONH 7809.50 just above yesterday RTH high. ONL 7774.75 near yesterday POC — both key levels.
Open type: Balanced ON = rotational open likely. No strong directional lean from inventory. Watch which side of yesterday close (7790.75) holds first.
Tempo tells: Hold above reclaimed 20DMA (7796) with slow accumulation = continuation up to 7810 ONH / fresh highs. Reject below 7779 50DMA = failed reclaim, back into yesterday's VA. Range day most likely into Friday close.
Key Levels
| Type | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| R | 7809.50 | Overnight High · ZF-ONF watch |
| R | 7801.75 | Yesterday RTH High |
| · | 7801.25 | Current (pre-RTH) |
| S | 7798.25 | Yesterday VAH |
| S | 7796 | 20DMA (reclaimed) |
| S | 7792 | Overnight Half-Back |
| S | 7790.75 | Yesterday close / settle |
| S | 7779 | 50DMA (reclaimed) |
| S | 7774.75 | Overnight Low · ZF-ONF watch |
| S | 7772.50 | Yesterday POC |
| S | 7758.50 | Yesterday VAL |
| S | 7694 | Weekly 20MA · HTF defence |
Scenarios
Primary — Rotation day between ONH 7810 and 7779 50DMA. Balanced inventory + reclaimed daily MAs + Friday post-expansion session. Expect two-sided trade. Fade both extremes of the overnight range on first test (ZF-TR setup). 20DMA and settle cluster at 7791-7796 is the pivot — above = buyers in control, below = sellers testing.
Secondary — Breakout up through 7810 to fresh highs. Short covering continues, buyers push through ONH and yesterday RTH high. First objective 7820, next 7840. Trade with the break if volume confirms.
Low prob — Fail at 7791 pivot, back into VA 7758-7798. Sellers reject 20DMA reclaim, price falls back into yesterday's value area. Below VAL 7758 opens path to 7745 and yesterday's lows. Would need rejection catalyst to activate.
This is not financial advice. All zones and scenarios are personal preparation for my own trading. Trade at your own risk.
ES Review & Prep
Yesterday opened with a gap below the prior RTH range, and the rally attempt to close it failed in the initial resistance zone at 6616.25-22.75 and sold off to close in to the key 6518-24.50 RTH support zone.
Overnight saw a weak attempted rally in the Asian session, followed by a downtrend into the very key ETH support zone at 6483-90.50, which was the low and pullback low from Monday before the 250 point spike. Failure of this zone likely to accelerate the selloff with little in way of support below.
The dollar is bid, Vix is pushing 30, and the Treasury curve is bear steepening pre-market…not conducive to a risk-on day and in my view the reality of the war and its repercussions through the economy are finally hitting home. It has been an orderly downtrend over the past month so far, but that could change dramatically. Historically markets tend to crash from oversold levels (RSI on daily currently 26).
We may see an attempt to close the gap from yesterday after the open, but without materially positive news the most likely scenario looks lower. However, if there’s a reversal into yesterday’s range and value area then we could see fast covering of the overnight short positioning and looking to sell into resistance zones if the upside has weak momentum and volume.
Today’s zones below:
ES Review & Morning Prep
Yesterday’s RTH session offered an early fade opportunity at the overnight high, in line with the overall trend since the Iran war started. Intraday bias was neutral. The perfect trade would have been selling the overnight high and covering at the prior day value area high: 6681.50 to 6632.00, which happened in the first half hour. Great in hindsight, not so easy in real time in a jumpy headline driven market.
Overnight so far ES has retested the prior support zones from below, and failed. It has broken the short term bull/bear from yesterday and is currently holding beneath 6600 (settlement was 6640.75). The RTH low at 6573.50 was nearly touched. The range has been 6647.00-6574.00 so far in a slow down trend.
The zones for today are below. The key zone for longs need to hold is 6572-6574.50 which is the bottom of the few days balance since Trump’s 200 point rally tweet on Monday. I don’t expect it to hold but will wait for the market to show it’s hand, and failure to break down could lead to a sharp move higher into the upper zones where sellers are likely to step in again I expect.
ES Morning Prep
Before looking at today’s zones of interest, let’s look at the bigger picture on the underlying cash market (SPX)
Monthly (log scale) - broken down after 3 month narrow balancing period. Holding below the 5 sma currently. Next major monthly support at the broken highs from Feb ‘25 (approximately 400 points lower)
Weekly - one timeframing lower for 3 weeks leaving long selling tails as every rally is sold down. 5 and 20 sma tests have seen responsive selling. 50 sma around 70 points lower which is still in a strong uptrend.
Daily - orderly decline with crossed and falling 20 and 50 sma, and sub 200 sma. RSI holding below 40 is indicative of the bull trend failing (currently 30). Support at 40 on RSI is indicative of a positive shift in momentum to bullish, and holding above 60 indicates strong bull trend.
Since the beginning of the war volatility has not surprisingly increased, but not to wild levels (Vix went from 20 to 34 and back to 20, and around 26 currently). Headlines dominate, as we saw on Monday when Trump tweeted and the market rallied 250 points in minutes following a steep downtrend which would have triggered short covering. Crude is essential to monitor simultaneously as the inverse correlation is strong currently with oil at all areas of production and delivery under attack.
Going into today’s open, the overnight session responded to hopes of a ceasefire settlement and is trading up about 50 pts from last night’s close. Yesterday’s RTH swing low area is my short term bull/bear as the market attempts a counter trend move. Breaking and holding beneath there leaves a lot of new longs offside and likely sets up a move for Monday’s low. On the upside there has been failure in the 6680 area overnight and a break would target 6700 and the big test is the spike high from Monday at 6748. Given the dominate short/intermediate trend is lower I’d look to fade key resistance zones for a reversal unless there is material positive news. However, there are good long opportunity zones on the intraday timeframe as well.
Overnight range is 6634.25-6681.75 versus yesterday’s settle at 6606.00
ES Morning Prep
The charts above from left to right show a snapshot of long term to shorter term for ES:
Monthly - April range was 4830.00-5773.25 (943.25 point range!) So far in May we’ve failed to take out the prior high and are heading towards the April close of 5587. The April monthly candle left a 814 point lower ‘wick’, which is a huge outlier and I’d expect to see an attempt to retrace part of this - currently still holding above prior close and above the March low (5509.25)
Weekly - Prior week high 5724.75, low 5455.50 (5590 mid-point). Last week hit the 50 week sma and backed off after a strong thrust higher
Daily - Holding above the 50 day sma (though still trending down) and above the 20 day sma (turning up)
240 min - This chart also has the monthly volume profile with VPOC & value area high/low markers. So far holding above April value area, but pre-market is now holding under the value area low for May (5634 currently)
60 min - This chart has the weekly volume profile overlaid and so far the downtrend overnight is inside the prior week value area; the longer this remains the higher the chance of rotation lower to the other side of value.
Above left above the market & volume profiles for the overnight and cash sessions, above right is the cash session only.
The huge rally has not surprisingly paused and the overnight session has trended lower. In terms of expectations for today, the main scenarios i’m looking for are:
Open to take out overnight low and rally - looking to fade key reference points (vwap, VAH etc.) for continuation lower to test levels. If no rally above overnight low immediately then early push to auction lower prices - 5598-5600 key support zone - looking for more sellers if this fails. Looking for longs to hold if can push back above vwap and vah for today