ES Prep
Friday, 16 October 2026 · EPZ26 (Dec ES) · Pre-market read
Regime
Yesterday was a trend-day-up, built on short covering. 84.5pt range (128% of ATR10). Opened with a gap-down to 7735.75, flushed to 7717.25, then reversed hard — closed at 7790.75 near the highs. Classic p-shape profile (short covering): value 7758-7798, POC 7772.
Both daily MAs reclaimed. Price now ABOVE 20DMA 7796 and 50DMA 7779. Yesterday's b-shape (long liquidation) → today's p-shape (short covering) is the textbook two-day flush-and-recover sequence.
Overnight tight, balanced. 34.75pt rotation between 7774.75 and 7809.50, inventory balanced. Current 7801.25 — upper half of ON range, holding above yesterday's close and 20DMA.
Vol regime 1.03 — neutral. ATR(10) 65.97. Two expansion days in a row (151% then 128%). Expect normalisation into the weekend.
Pre-Session Context
Yesterday: Trend-day-up after flush. Hot inflation data triggered opening sell, then violent short cover drove recovery through broken daily MAs.
Overnight: Narrow 34pt rotation, balanced inventory. ONH 7809.50 just above yesterday RTH high. ONL 7774.75 near yesterday POC — both key levels.
Open type: Balanced ON = rotational open likely. No strong directional lean from inventory. Watch which side of yesterday close (7790.75) holds first.
Tempo tells: Hold above reclaimed 20DMA (7796) with slow accumulation = continuation up to 7810 ONH / fresh highs. Reject below 7779 50DMA = failed reclaim, back into yesterday's VA. Range day most likely into Friday close.
Key Levels
| Type | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| R | 7809.50 | Overnight High · ZF-ONF watch |
| R | 7801.75 | Yesterday RTH High |
| · | 7801.25 | Current (pre-RTH) |
| S | 7798.25 | Yesterday VAH |
| S | 7796 | 20DMA (reclaimed) |
| S | 7792 | Overnight Half-Back |
| S | 7790.75 | Yesterday close / settle |
| S | 7779 | 50DMA (reclaimed) |
| S | 7774.75 | Overnight Low · ZF-ONF watch |
| S | 7772.50 | Yesterday POC |
| S | 7758.50 | Yesterday VAL |
| S | 7694 | Weekly 20MA · HTF defence |
Scenarios
Primary — Rotation day between ONH 7810 and 7779 50DMA. Balanced inventory + reclaimed daily MAs + Friday post-expansion session. Expect two-sided trade. Fade both extremes of the overnight range on first test (ZF-TR setup). 20DMA and settle cluster at 7791-7796 is the pivot — above = buyers in control, below = sellers testing.
Secondary — Breakout up through 7810 to fresh highs. Short covering continues, buyers push through ONH and yesterday RTH high. First objective 7820, next 7840. Trade with the break if volume confirms.
Low prob — Fail at 7791 pivot, back into VA 7758-7798. Sellers reject 20DMA reclaim, price falls back into yesterday's value area. Below VAL 7758 opens path to 7745 and yesterday's lows. Would need rejection catalyst to activate.
This is not financial advice. All zones and scenarios are personal preparation for my own trading. Trade at your own risk.