ES review & plan
Following Friday's strong NFP number, the ES opened within Thursday's range, tested lower to the prior POC and then slowly pushed high. Cumulative delta was trending strongly higher without a great increase in price, but eventually the overnight high was breached and another all time high was made. This was a poor high showing no excess completion to the upside auction yet. The late liquidation break reversed off Thursday's open and recovered leaving value overlapping higher.
There are no US economic releases today, and it's very light until Thursday's retail sales. Long term trends are all holding up and the upside objectives remain the same. 2067 remains an important high volume area for bulls to remain above. A break below puts Thursday's poor low and recent market/volume profile references in the sights.
ES review & plan
Yesterday opened exactly at the prior day's VPOC and tested higher to the 2072 prior VAH. Failing to push through settlement, sellers pushed for the vulnerable 2067.75 level where the market had pulled back to the prior morning.
This broke through and saw a liquidation flush through the overnight low and stopped exactly at Tuesday's POC. After a rally to Tuesday's VPOC and then an attempt to test of the low again, the market moved solidly higher back to the open with no rotation lower prior to the news that the ECB are preparing for QE in January. There was another 6 point rally to leave a new high before reversing 11 points and eventually closing just under the prior close.
NFP beat consensus by a wide margin at 321k new jobs. There was an initial move lower to 2068.50 from 2073-74 pre-number. The dollar index is hitting new highs and bonds and gold are off sharply. The overnight range is 2068.50-2077.00, within yesterday's range.
Upside and downside fib and volume profile references remain the same as before:
ES review & plan
Yesterday opened at the high volume point from last week's range, tested lower through the prior settlement and reversed off a high volume node from Tuesday. The overnight high had matched Tuesday's poor high. Once through this the next upside target was the 2072.00 naked VPOC from the prior week. When this was achieved the market stalled and pulled back to a tick below the overnight high before slowly rallying and eventually pushing through the early high to all time highs.
There is excess left at the high and there was some aggressive selling action into the close. However, volume was poor overall with just 922k contracts and 3.62 bn shares on NYSE traded.
If trade remains above the 2072 area there is a good chance for more new highs. Acceptance below and could start to rotate lower to test the various levels, HVNs & LVNs below.
My upside measured fib moves are 2082.50 & 2092.00 on the 60 min, 2139.00 on the daily and 2156.00 on the monthly.
The ECB announcement and press conference today from 06:45 ct will be the dominant focus for the market before tomorrow's employment report. Jobless claims are at 07:30 ct.
ES review & plan
The market opened yesterday a tick below the prior VPOC and proceeded to drive higher, pushing through the overnight high, prior high and open gap. Trade was looking tired and the risk of a liquidation break was averted as buyers stepped in at the prior days high on the late morning pullback. The upside target of 2067.00 was reached and a poor high left at 2068.00 before a slight pullback into the close.
Volume was 1.14 m contracts and 3.6 bn shares traded on NYSE.
There is the ADP employment report at 07.15 ct, ISM non-manufacturing at 09:00 ct and the Beige Book at 13:00 ct.
Shorts were squeezed yesterday and the all time high is vulnerable again if volume builds above the 2067.00 mcVPOC. The high has only been made in the overnight session and yet to be matched during regular trading hours, which is unusual and odds favour a revisit at least during RTH. 2071.50-72 is the initial target above 2067.00
The overnight range so far has been only 4.5 points (2063.25-2067.75). If volume builds below the 2063.50 area, 2060.00 was a pullback level yesterday to defend, as well as Monday's high and within a tick of yesterday's value area low. Failure to hold there would target 2057.50 and 2052.75.
ES review & plan
Yesterday's move lower began overnight and the gap on the open was not filled. It ended up being a rotational and balanced session, though there was aggressive selling overall as shown by the large negative cumulative delta into the close of -57k. This is similar to the average on a trend day lower. Volume was 1.47m contracts and 4.1bn shares on NYSE.
The prominent POC/VPOC from yesterday is likely to be pivotal for today's direction.
Holding above the POC/VPOC will put the overnight high and the open gap as initial targets. The value area from last week is between 2064.50-2071.00 with 2067.00 the mcVPOC and major level for bulls to push through.
If the gap is filled but there is failure to push through the 2064 area, then a liquidation break is likely targeting yesterday's POC/VPOC and low.
If there is high volume acceptance below yesterday's settle, I expect to see a push lower through the thin composite volume profile below towards the 2036.50 HVN.
ES review & plan
Overnight trade has been lower on globex, dragged down by a weak Eurozone PMI manufacturing index, a downgrade by Moodys on Japan's debt and talk of disappointing retail sales on Black Friday. The overnight high has failed to enter the value area from last week and the low has targeted the open gap area from regular trading hours.
The market currently would be gapping lower on open. The 2064-67 area is now resistance if there is an attempt at closing the gap above. The overnight range extremes are important references going into today.
PMI & ISM manufacturing are this morning at 08:45 & 09:00 respectively.Thursday has the ECB & BOE in the spotlight and the US employment report on Friday. Full US calendar here.
ES review & plan
Wednesday's trade going into the holiday was light in volume, unsurprisingly (741k contracts & 2.7bn shares on NYSE). Regular trading hours range was the ovenight low, which coincided with the prior day's initial balance low, pushing up to the overnight high at the end of the day.
The VPOC at 2067.00 of the range in the past week is prominent and key for longs to hold onto if a more serious liquidation break is to be avoided. 2064-2071 is the value area created so far. Acceptance below 2064 and failure to break break above 2067 on a retest would signal the likelihood of a break to the gap from 2054.75-2052.50.
A look at the longer term charts shows the upside objectives.
The monthly continuous contract shows the 161.8% extended retracement of the Oct '07 high to March '09 low at 2156.00, which is 4.3% higher than where we are currently. I think the odds are high of this bringing longer term money in as responsive sellers.
The weekly chart shows we are currently pausing at the first major fib extended retracement of the Sept-Oct near 200 point swing. The next objective is the 161.8% of this move at 2139.00.
Stocks close early today and volumes are expected to remain light. Crude's sharp falls will be the major influence on the market again today for oil and transport related stocks.
ES review & plan
Yesterday saw another fresh high and low volume (976k contracts & 3.3bn shares on NYSE). Following the pit open there was a rally to exactly the overnight high, which then failed. The target then was the prior day's poor low, which was also the overnight low. This was hit in the second hour of trade, running through stops and finding a low at 2062.75, an HVN from last Friday. Buyers pushed prices back up into the prior range leaving value slightly overlapping higher.
2067.00 is a key high volume node for bulls to maintain above for continued upside. Durable goods and jobless claims are due at 07:30 ct, Chicago PMI at 08:45 ct (released a few mins prior for subscribers), consumer sentiment at 08.55 ct and new home sales at 09:00 ct. Going into the Thanksgiving holiday, volumes will probably be light.
The most likely scenarios today I think will be possibly:
1. Yesterday's range is held and volume builds above the 2067 HVN to challenge the highs again. With trends all up this remains the highest odds move, though I think the market is setting itself up for a bigger fall the longer this goes on. The market closed approximately 70 points above it's 50 day moving average, which is very stretched.
2. Volume builds below 2067 and pushes through yesterday's low to test last Friday's POC/VPOC and value area low.
3. Yesterday's range is rejected and the open gap from last Thursday/Friday is targeted.
The current HVN at 2067.00 is also a key fib level for the pit session:
ES review & plan
I was expecting an inside day yesterday but not that inside! Value was higher leaving a record closing high. The 5 point range was supported at the overnight pullback level of 2064.25. Volume was very low at just 780k contracts and 3.1bn shares on NYSE.
Trends remain to the upside and continuation is expected until the market gives more information to the contrary. Failure to breach the excess high from last Friday (single prints from 2069.50-2072.25 would set up for a test lower of Friday's POC/VPOC, low and the open gap and last Thursday's naked POC/VPOC. The next major measured upside target is 2139.00 then 2156.00.
ES review & plan
Friday's pre-market trade had ramped higher on dovish talk from Draghi and the China interest rate cut, leaving the overnight market very long.
On opening, the overnight high was briefly breached and failed. A correction to overnight inventory ensued. The measured move at 2069.25 had been hit. One timeframing lower proceeded until lunchtime, making a low just above the prior range and failing to fill the gap. The low was a couple of ticks short of 50% for the range from Thursday's low to Friday's high.
Value was clearly higher on the day, but there had been a strong effort to counter the full overnight move. Volume was 1.6m contracts and 3.9bn shares traded on NYSE - not high considering the range on the day and overnight news.
This is a short week with Thanksgiving on Thursday and a shortened day on Friday. Here is the week's economic calendar.
Absence of any major economic news leaves me to envisage the most likely possible scenarios:
1. Have an inside day to Friday, trading within prior value.
2. There is a push lower to close the gap and naked VPOC/POC from last Thursday followed by a rally back into Friday's value.
3. There is support at Friday's POC/VPOC area and a push higher to challenge the highs.
The overnight market at at 05:00 ct has traded a narrow range between 2060.75 (Friday's VPOC) and 2067.50.