ES review & plan
Yesterday morning opened strong after a brief failed attempt to take out the overnight low, with market internals becoming very bullish up to the announcement, similar to a trend day (NYSE advance/decline line at +1900, TICK above zero mainly and cumulative delta +40k).
The 20 odd point drop in half an hour post-announcement looked to be short term liquidation and shorts jumping on but cumulative delta remained +20k at the low. Sellers attempted to push through the prior VPOC twice and failed, which was a bullish sign. Once back above the overnight high and when it became support, it was clear longs had regained control. Value had been building higher all day , which was something to be conscious of in the face of the sharp fall.
The market is now trading within a composite high volume area so we may see some slower two-sided trade until we break above yesterday's high. Some of the key prior price action levels to be aware of in the current range for potential support and resistance are shown below. The 2100 area is low volume on the composite profile and there's potential for a strong rejection off that initially should it move through from here.
With bulls clearly still in control, I'm only looking for long opportunities on dips at support until we see evidence that buying has given up.
ES review & plan
Yesterday opened below the prior two days RTH range, within the open gap. Volume was low again and top of Thursday's single prints were tested at the settlement, followed by a run up to tag the overnight high then push through the low before rallying into the close ahead of the major earnings announcements.
The Globex chart below shows the classic continuation chart pattern, the flag, which has formed over the past few days following the breakout last week. Using a measured move of this pattern, a breakout would target 2118.25, the current all time high.
However, there are plenty of obstacles along the way, assuming there is a breakout. The levels highlighted are prior highs and areas of high volume where trade may slow down. The low volume nodes may see initial rejection on a move up but also be areas to use on a pullback for longs.
Failure of this pattern and acceptance below yesterday's low puts last Thursday's range back in the sights, with the naked VPOC at 2045.50 initially and the 2034-37 area being a major area for longs to defend or we may likely see a more aggressive sell off targeting the 10/21 low at 2008.00
ES review & plan
Yesterday ended up a narrow range, inside day on low volume (1.1m contracts and 3.3bn shares on NYSE). Market internals were weak for the session, though unusually for the second day in a row neither the overnight high or low were taken out.
The story remains the same for now that the longs remain in control, and I'm looking for a push to the 2077.50-79.00 zone (see below), preferably with the market holding above Friday's low. The gap still remains open from Thursday so I'm aware we may see a break to close this and look for buyers. There is a spike in the profile from Thursday between 2049.00-54.00. Ideally for longs the market doesn't want to start trading below that spike or there's a chance we may see rotation through that value area, though the 2045.50 naked VPOC may provide support.
This is a highly news sensitive few days ahead with results from Apple and Exxon alone moving $1 Trillion of market capitalisation, plus the Fed announcement tomorrow.
Overnight the range is currently 2056.75 (Friday's RTH low) to 2063.75 versus settlement at 2062.25 (net short).
ES review & plan
Friday broke higher on a gap and had good volume at 2m contracts and 4bn shares on NYSE.
The market remains bullish going into this week ahead of AAPL's earnings tomorrow and the Fed on Wednesday. I'm expecting continuation higher to test the 2077.50-79.00 zone (see below) and some consolidation if that is hit. Failure to hold above Friday's RTH low could see a test of the nVPOC at 2045.50 and 2037.50 range low from Aug 12th. If there is a large beat on estimates from AAPL and we could easily see new all time highs this week. The current all time high shows no sign of excess (i.e. completion of the upside auction visible by a long selling tail on the longer time frame charts).
ES review & plan
Yesterday we got the balance breakout that bulls have been hoping for on decent volume of 2m contracts and 4.4 bn shares on NYSE, helped by Mario Draghi's comments regarding possible further QE which sent European yields crashing, along with the Euro.
The morning trend day saw a more than 50% pullback before continuing to the highs with very bullish internals. After hours beats from AMZN and GOOG have sustained the move.
Overnight initially balanced above yesterday's close, then has shot up on news of a PBOC cut in it's lending and deposit rates up towards the high volume area below. The range is currently 2053.25-74.50 versus settle at 2053.00.
The move is looking very stretched if it hits 2077.50, which is the 261.8% extended fib retracement of the swing from 10/21-10/22. Dips are likely to be bought and my primary expectation is for balancing at these higher prices. We're likely to open on a large gap from yesterday's 2054.00 high and 2053 settle, forcing a lot of shorts to be margin called early on. If we see a gap close I'm expecting this to be aggressively bought, though I see 2058.25 as a more likely low area where the break was overnight as seen below.
ES review & plan
It was another small range, balanced day on lower than average volume (1.2m contracts and 3.3bn shares on NYSE). The attempted breakout failed as the market was pulled back with a weaker Nasdaq leading. The market spent little time below the overnight low as buyers stepped in just above Monday's open.
Longs are still in control short term and the upper targets are 2037.50 initially (Aug 12th low), then 200 day sma at 2041.00 and 2043.75 (Aug 20th volume point of control).
Support from the past two days is between 2020.25-21.75, and a break below there has the bull/bear zone as support between 2012.00-14.00. Failure there puts a liquidation move more likely down to 2001.00 (base of spike Oct 15th).
Overnight so far has seen a range extension higher, trading between 2015.75-34.25 versus settle at 2020.50. No major economic announcements are due today. Bias remains to the upside until we see market generated information to show an upside auction failure and longs throwing in the towel. A balance breakout is looking more likely, though volume has not been compelling this week so far.
ES review & plan
Another quiet balancing day on fairly low volume of 1.3m contracts and 3.2bn shares on NYSE. The low at 2014.25 saw buyers step in a tick above the bull/bear zone, showing longs remain in control for now (see chart notes above).
Overnight has been in a narrow range between 2019.25-27.25 versus settle at 2027.50
Housing Starts are due at 7:30am ct and Janet Yellen is speaking at 10:00am ct. There's pre-market support at 2018-20 and pre-market resistance at 2026.25-27.25. The next major areas of support and resistance I'm seeing are highlighted below, with 2012-14 staying as the bull/bear zone for now.
ES review & plan
Friday was a fairly small range, below average volume day with bulls in short term control. 1.3m ES contracts traded and 3.5bn shares on NYSE.
A poor high was left on Friday and a prominent POC/VPOC was left acting as support. The next area above where there is a confluence of levels is 2036.50-40.50, where composite HVNs, Aug 12th low and 200 day sma converge.
Short term the bull/bear zone is 2012-14 which could see weak longs liquidate below and target the base of the breakout area at 2000 and naked VPOC at 1994.25.
There is no tier 1 US data due and we may see support gets tested before attempting to push through Friday's high to test the next resistance area above.
ES review & plan
Yesterday morning was fairly choppy, though still holding above the prior day's VPOC. The longer time frame bias was bullish and once buyers could hold above the overnight high, upward momentum kicked in. Market internals were very strong for the second half of the day and the uptrend continued right up to the close, pushing through the top of the range
Volume was reasonable at 1.7m ES contracts and 3.7bn shares on NYSE.
Overnight has remained above the breakout level so far, with the range 2013.75-2023.00 currently, versus settle at 2019.00. Longs remain firmly in control for now and will be buying dips at support areas. Above, 2025.25 was the 07/05 low and 2037.50 the 08/12 low where the market broke down through, so looking for potential response by sellers there. Below, the 2010/12 area is now initial support and 2000/02 next strong area of support I'm looking at.
Today's data due is here.
ES review & plan
Yesterday saw value lower following on from the weaker overnight trade, helped in part by the news and big drop from WMT. The early attempt to rally saw sellers step in and test the lower support areas. A short squeeze saw a pullback to the overnight high and then a push to the target naked VPOC from 10/08.
Volume was 1.7m contracts and 3.6bn shares on NYSE.
Overnight has seen a move higher and pressure is on shorts from the past 2 days if the market can hold the range from last Friday to Monday, which will put the top of the range back on target. Failure to maintain the upward momentum could see the long overnight inventory corrected and an attempt by shorts to press lower through yesterday's poor low.
The current overnight range is 1985.00-2000.00 versus settle at 1984.00.