Review & Plan - Tuesday
Zones for today are below. Latest 3 profiles show Europe, Asia & US sessions.
Review & Plan - Monday
The market is one time framing higher on the monthly, weekly and daily basis now. The overnight range is 2061.00-2071.50, holding above the longer term composite VPOC at 2061.50.
We are trading above current value in the recent range. My main expectation is for responsive buying at the first support zone. If the market begins to accept below the composite VPOC and reject from underneath, I'll be expecting shorts to put pressure on into the lower zones.
Review & Plan - Thursday
Yesterday's overnight move higher to test the composite VPOC at 2061.50 got the market long overnight which corrected itself as the day progressed though still left an open gap from Tuesday's high and settle.
Overnight has tested down to Tuesday's settle and found buyers back to the prior POC/VPOC.
The weekly and daily trends remain bullish, though the market is consolidating short term following the spike higher after Yellen's speech. Developing value of the current range after the breakout is imbalanced higher currently though the 2061.50-70.50 area is a high volume and time area spent historically so this has potential for rotational trade within or rejection/breakout underneath/above. Any outliers in tomorrows NFP could give us the answer to that.
Zones for today at quarter end are below and I'm looking for an attempt to push higher into the resistance zones shown. If the market fails to hold above the overnight low there is potential for a liquidation break into the poor structure from Tuesday.
Ideally I would want the 52.75-53.75 overnight support to hold for a sign of strength to the upside.
Review & Plan - Weds
The daily chart above shows the key ranges of the past year with custom volume profiles and the composite profile (right hand side - 1500 days). Yesterday's break higher following Janet Yellen's dovish speech has seen prices move back up into high volume price of the upper ranges.
Yesterday's day session below shows the spikes and trend day which followed. Overall volume was 1.5m contracts and 3.8bn shares on NYSE, which is not high considering the news.
You can see a very stretched out profile with extremely thin trade during the spikes highlighted. The VPOC and POC did not migrate higher from the morning and the structure left shows forcing action accelerated by short covering.
Overnight extended higher ranging between 2046.75-2061.50 (settlement 2047.50). The overnight high is also the composite VPOC, which has been a major target for longs.
There's potential for a large range gap opening so will be looking for a potential fill of that. If 2043.50 holds (top of yesterday afternoon spike), this keeps bulls in the driving seat short term. If we see a test and fail of the overnight high after the open, I'm looking for shorts to attempt to push into yesterday's range. Accepting above 2061.50 could see continuation up towards the 2080.00-81.75 zone potentially.
Zones I'm using for today are below:
Review & Plan - Thursday
Pressure from crude and oil stocks weighed most on the indices yesterday on what was a slow trading day accompanied with strong negative cumulative delta
Zones for today now the market has moved back inside the prior range. Overnight: 2013.25-2028.75 versus settlement at 2028.75
Review & Plan - Wednesday
Following the awful terrorist attacks in Brussels yesterday, the overnight range did not break far to the downside but left the market short going into the open. Following the open the market had a brief look under the prior two day RTH range lows and found buyers.
The distribution above the overnight high saw longs eventually liquidate and rotate back towards the POC/VPOC. Volume was fairly light and a poor high was left on the day showing the upside auction is likely unfinished.
The 4 hour chart below shows the longer time frame distributions of the past 5 months. Yesterday's high coincided with the breakdown area from the end of last year.
The hourly chart below shows the development of value in the past month using custom profiles. Value continues to move higher towards the highest volume traded price of the past 5 years at 2061.50 (back adjusted data). The current balance area is 2026.75-47.50 and short term bias remains bullish unless we start to see acceptance below current value with negative price action and order flow.
Zones for today are shown below and data due here.
Overnight so far has been in a narrow range between 2037.75-45.25 versus settlement at 2042.50.
The primary expectation is for continuation higher, breaking through yesterday's poor high and targeting 2061.50
The top of yesterday's buying tail and low of value is a key support area for today to hold (2035.25-37.50). If trade accepts below this area then we could potential break the current balance low and target the lower zones down to last week's VPOC at 2006.75. However, I would expect the 2026.75-28.75 zone to hold if longs are to retain short term control.
Review & Plan - Friday
Yesterday's trend day higher has broken above value of the recent balance. The hourly chart below shows custom profiles as the ranges progress higher after a breakout, heading back towards the composite VPOC at 2061.50
Zones for today below - holding long bias unless market holds below overnight low (2027.00), which could then set up a short term liquidation towards the 3/16 VPOC at 2007.50
Review & Plan - Thursday
Yesterday's profile and zones above show a range extension higher following the FOMC news.
The move broke out of the recent balance area shown below, which continued overnight to the 161.8% extended retracement at 2027.25 before selling off back towards the balance area VPOC at 2006.75
Zones for today below:
Review & Plan - Wednesday
A slow day's trade yesterday after the gap lower on the open saw the low from Friday tested and defended, then a slow grind back towards the prior VPOC at 2006.75.
Zones for today are below. We are in a short term balance since Friday (custom volume profile shows value area in blue). My bull/bear zone for today is 1995-98.. Core CPI came out higher than expected, which triggered an initial move lower overnight. FOMC later so not looking to trade over that.
The overnight range is currently 1998.25-11.75 versus settle at 2006.00 on low relative volume.
Review & Plan - Thursday
Yesterday was a narrow range, low volume day which attempted several times to push through the prior day poor high and failed.
The main news overnight has been the ECB rate cut and expansion of their asset buying programme. This has pushed the range higher in Globex from 1986.25-2010.25 currently. It's also rollover day but the volume still remains in March for now, and there's currently a 9 point discount in the June contract.
Zones for today are shown below and includes a custom volume profile of the current range. Prices are holding above the value area high for now. My main expectation is for any dips to get bought today, though would be cautious of longs below the 1982.25-84.50 zone.