Review - Tuesday
Yesterday opened at the overnight VPOC and quickly pushed higher to the current range upper distribution and nVPOC from 7/22. Failure to hold this ground saw a break below the range LVN and a cascade of trapped longs sell stops helped drive quickly to the VAL of the RTH range before a sharp reversal back up to the breakdown point.
Yesterday's RTH session below next to combined profiles of the current range since 7/14:
1 min RTH chart with vwap, market internals,cumulative delta and zones
Buyers had a strong response at the first support zone, in line with the longer time frame bullish context.
Review - Monday
Yesterday opened and tested higher to the current range upper distribution HVN at 2167. The move lower stopped a tick below yesterday's globex low before reversing.
Volume was fairly low at 1.2m, though liquidity remains thick in the order book with declining volatility.
Settlement was at 2162.25
The combined day session profiles of the current balance area show the double distribution. Yesterday rejected the upper distribution HVN but managed to close above the volume and time POC at 59.25. We didn't see a test of the value area low of this range yesterday, so I would look for that as a possible destination followed by the 51.25 LVN below if the market holds below 59.25.
I'm looking for potential resistance above at the 64.25 LVN, and if that fails a move to the 67 HVN and resistance or break higher to at least test the globex all time high in the day session.
The current range and it's value area below on the 120 min Globex chart below, with value between 53.50-62.25.
The next HVN below current range is at 46, the prior range VPOC.
We are in a neutral phase until buyers can either hold above the 67 HVN or sellers can press below the 51.25 LVN and 49 swing low.
Review - Thursday
The market opened within yesterday's range and below its high volume area. It struggled to advance much past the initial resistance zone and we eventually got a break to the downside, one time-framing lower down to the current range value area low. NYSE internals were not overly weak to support a trend into the close and there was a late bounce back towards the range vpoc.
Volume was below average at about 1.2m and NYSE total shares traded at 3.3bn.
In the past two days we've seen an attempt to break from the range yesterday leave a poor high, buying dry up and short term sellers drive to retest the other side of value of the range today. As long as the market can hold today's low then I would expect buyers to repair the poor high at 2169.75 and at least trade the globex all time high at 2170.25 during the day session.
The bull/bear zone for overnight is now 51.25-53.50, next support 47.75-49.00 and next resistance 60.50-62.50
Review - Wednesday
Volume and momentum was low but the market moved away from the balance area of the past days, leaving a poor high at 2169.75 and key volume support between 66.75-68.75 (VPOC 67.25).
Overnight, expectation is for the poor high to get broken and attempt higher. However, a break and hold below 66.75 could see some attempt back towards the range VPOC at 60.50.
Review & Plan - Wednesday
Review
Below shows the key references tested/rejected during the day session yesterday, split by 30 min profile letters B to P.
Overnight
In line with the longer time frame, the market has extended higher with the range currently 2155.25-2167.25, just short of the 2168.00 globex all-time high.
Plan
If we open inside yesterday's range, we could test the 55.25-56.50 support zone, which if buyers are strong a) probably shouldn't get hit & b) if it doesI'd expect to see responsive buyers of it and for that area to hold.
If we open outside of yesterday's range, we may see an attempt to fill the gap and the 60-61.50 support zone would be where I'd expect buyers to step in.
Above the 2168 globex high there is the yearly vwap 2nd stan.dev. band at 2176.75 currently, where the market paused when making the recent high.
Breaking and holding below the 51.25-52.25 bull/bear zone puts a short term liquidation move on the cards.
Review & Plan - Tuesday
Review
The day finished neutral/bullish forming a P shaped profile, a buying tail and a poor high. Volume was only 1.1m for the full session which gives less confidence to the move attempt higher.
I've just begun recording which of the key levels get tested and rejected intra-day. Yesterday's day session below.
RZ/SZ are resistance and support zones the day
Overnight
The market is balancing in the lower value area of the current range. The range is currently 2151.25-2160.75 on low volume versus settlement at 2160.00
Plan
The buying tail in yesterday's day session would be expected to hold if longs are want to hold yesterday's move. The test lower overnight has my bull/bear zone for today at 2151.25-52.25, but ideally for longs, the 55.50 holds for an attempt to break yesterday's poor high and target the highs. Inititial resistance is at 60.00-61.50.
If the first move is higher and there's failure to break 60, we could test the overnight low and into lower zones. Volume and momentum assesment in realtime is needed.
Review & Plan - Monday
Review
Friday left a strong high after 3 point selling tail and rejection of the prior day high. Value was left overlapping lower to Thursday.
Plan
We potentially have at intermediate term high in place to give the market a chance to auction back towards the breakout point after such an extended move. The longer term trend remains bullish for now though there should be plenty of opportunities on the short side as well if we're going to see a short term correction.
If the market builds price above Friday's value area then buyers can regain control of this market and go for the 2168.00 globex highwhich hasn't been hit during the day session yet, which odds favour happening at some point.
The zones for today are below.
2155.00-56.25 is my short term bull bear for today.
Review & Plan - Thursday
Review
Yesterday's price action was dominated by the sharp sell-off in crude but buyers still managed to support the break higher this week and continued to build value around the VPOC of the week so far, currently 2046.00
Overnight
Early in the European session buyers pushed through the heavily defended 2148 level from yesterday. This has seen a further squeeze on shorts and a move up to 2168.00 from a 2142.75 low.
Weekly profiles below show the current week's attempt at a small balance area around 2146.00
The daily chart below shows the move from the yearly vwap to the 2nd standard deviation band, which is steadily rising. We may start to see some digestion of recent price rises in the short term having hit this band, and a correction back to retest the breakout point at 2119.50 would be a good test of longer time frame buyers initially. There are, however, no signs of buyers giving up yet.
Plan
The overnight rally has left an import area of support in the 2155.75-57.75 zone. If this holds and sees strong buying after the open, then I would expect at least a retest of the overnight high.
Failure to hold above 2155.75 puts the chances of a retest of the expected opening gap zone (2150.50-52.25) and breakout area (2146.00-47.75).
Holding below 2146 and particularly the overnight low would put sellers back in short term control and target the lower zones. However, unless there is major volume and momentum, I would still look for responsive buyers activity, in line with the longer time frame uptrend.
Review & Plan - Wednesday
Review
Value shifted higher once again in yesterday's day session. The afternoon attempt to break through the morning high saw a 1 tick failure. There remains an open gap to Monday's high and a poor high left on yesterday's profile.
2147.00 is the current VPOC for this week, and will be an important level for today.
The day session below on the 1 min chart includes the VWAP and 1st,2nd,3rd standard deviation bands with the day's volume profile and market internals, together with the initial support zone at 2136.75-38.25.
Cumulative delta was heavily sold off after the morning high at 2149, showing big negative divergence.
Overnight
The range has so far been 2142.00-52.25 versus settlement at 2145.75
The main overnight news was the uncovered German 10 yr bund auction at -0.05% (first time negative yield auction).
Plan
No change in zones for today, just adding 2141.25-43.25 as initial support. Bias remains bullish up to inital resistance at 2156.75-58.25