ES review & prep
Yesterday’s overnight high failure main trade opportunity (left). Zones for today (right).
Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · EPZ26 (Dec ES) · Pre-market read
Regime
Monday was a quiet balance day inside Friday's VA. 45.75pt range (64% of ATR10). Opened 7741, rotated 7727-7773, closed 7735. First rest after three big trend days (Tue -97pt, Wed +84pt, Fri -127pt).
Overnight drifting lower. 48.25pt rotation 7704.50-7752.75. Current 7724.75 near overnight low. Weekly 20MA at 7700 is sitting right at the overnight low area — critical HTF support test building.
Earnings week starts in earnest. Pre-market: GE, GM, RTX, MMM, NOC — industrials heavy. AMC: NFLX, SPCX, ISRG, COF. Big Wednesday night ahead (TSLA + META).
Vol regime 1.12 — mild expansion. ATR(10) 71.92. High-vol state persists after last week's expansion days. Monday's quiet day didn't reset ATR; next big move could come fast.
Pre-Session Context
Monday: Balance day inside Friday's wide VA. b-shape classification but on narrow range — shape label less meaningful than the day_type (balance). Buyers defended 7727, sellers capped at 7773.
Overnight: 48pt rotation lower. Price now below Monday close and ON half-back. Weekly 20MA 7700 just below ONL 7704.50 — one more leg down puts the HTF support in play.
Open type: Open near 7725-7735 likely. Watch which side of Monday close 7735 holds in first 30 min. GE/RTX/MMM earnings reactions could inject gap volatility — see Earnings section.
Tempo tells: Hold above Monday close 7735 with slow buying = range extension toward Monday H 7773 / ONH 7753. Reject at 7735 with sellers through = test weekly 20MA 7700 and ONL 7704. Below weekly 20MA with volume = structural break, flush toward 7676 Friday low cluster.
Earnings — High Impact
| Timing | Tickers | Index relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Tue BMO | GE, GM, RTX, MMM, NOC, HAL, HAS | Industrials heavy · GE and RTX most market-moving |
| Tue AMC | NFLX, SPCX, ISRG, UAL, COF, CB | Streaming / health / airlines / financials |
| Wed AMC | TSLA, META, IBM, LRCX, TXN | Biggest night of the week — expect Thu gap |
| Thu BMO | LMT, CMCSA, PG, BX, DOW | Staples + defence |
Industrials pre-open could set tone for first hour. Watch GE and RTX reactions — both heavy index weights and often guide sector sentiment. If both beat strongly, that's a tailwind for the open; miss or weak guide = add to selling pressure.
Key Levels
| Type | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| R | 7897.50 | Oct 6 swing high · weekly R |
| R | 7803.25 | Friday RTH High |
| R | 7791 | 20DMA (lost) |
| R | 7774 | 50DMA (lost) |
| R | 7773.25 | Monday RTH High |
| R | 7756 | Friday VAH |
| R | 7752.75 | Overnight High · Mon VAH · ZF-ONF watch |
| R | 7746.78 | Monday RTH VWAP |
| R | 7742.50 | Monday POC |
| R | 7735.00 | Monday close · immediate pivot |
| · | 7724.75 | Current (pre-RTH) |
| S | 7728.63 | Overnight Half-Back |
| S | 7727.50 | Monday RTH Low |
| S | 7717.25 | Oct 15 RTH Low · prior flush pivot |
| S | 7704.50 | Overnight Low · ZF-ONF watch |
| S | 7703.00 | Friday close |
| S | 7704.25 | Friday Settle (official) |
| S | 7701.50 | Friday POC |
| S | 7700 | Weekly 20MA · HTF defence (stacked at 7700-7705) |
| S | 7677 – 7676 | Friday RTH Low cluster |
| S | ~7600 | Round number / next structural support below weekly MA |
Scenarios
Primary — Test of 7700-7705 stacked support band. Overnight drift continues through 7704 ONL into the weekly MA + Friday settle cluster. First test is a ZF-ONF long setup if sellers show first exhaustion (slow tempo, excess print, volume divergence). Target 7735 Monday close on bounce.
Secondary — Break weekly 20MA 7700, flush to 7676 Friday low cluster. Sellers push through the stacked support band without hesitation. Below 7676 opens structural break territory. Catalyst risk: GE/RTX earnings miss adds to pressure.
Low prob — Reclaim 7735 Monday close, run to 7753 ONH. Industrial earnings beats trigger risk-on open, buyers through Monday close, test ONH 7752.75 / Monday VAH 7752. ZF-R short setup activates at that cluster if tempo stalls. Requires strong pre-market gap-up catalyst.
Earnings risk layering: GE/RTX/MMM pre-market reactions set the tone for the first hour. NFLX AMC = overnight gap risk into Wednesday. TSLA + META Wednesday night = don't carry size into Wed close.
This is not financial advice. All zones and scenarios are personal preparation for my own trading. Trade at your own risk.