ES review & plan
Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · EPZ26 (Dec ES) · Pre-market read
Regime
Tuesday was another V-shape recovery. Gapped down to 7710, held the weekly 20MA zone (7700-7710), then rallied hard to 7791 close 7759 (+32 from the low). 81pt range, 115% ATR10. Second recovery off weekly MA defence in a week.
Overnight tight and elevated. 36pt range 7757-7793 — narrowest in a week. Current 7780.50 upper half. Long inventory (settle 7759 below ON mid 7775). 20DMA at 7787 sits right at ONH 7793 — stacked overhead resistance.
Tech earnings tonight. TSLA + META + IBM + LRCX + TXN all AMC. Biggest earnings night of the quarter. Expect low vol into the close, then overnight gap risk into Thursday.
Vol regime 1.12 — mild expansion. ATR(10) 72.85. Market has recovered 83pt from Friday close 7703 in two sessions. Reclaim of 7787 20DMA + 7773 50DMA would mark structural reversal.
Pre-Session Context
Tuesday: V-shape day. Gap-down tested 7710 (right at weekly 20MA 7700 cluster), reversed, rallied to 7791 near 20DMA, closed 7759 in the middle. Buyers defended the HTF line.
Overnight: Tight 36pt rotation above settle. Price sits in upper half, approaching ONH + 20DMA cluster at 7787-7793. Long inventory = base-case counter-auction DOWN at open to rebalance.
Open type: Open near 7778-7785. Watch which side of 20DMA 7787 and ONH 7793 holds. Reject at cluster = fade back toward Tuesday close 7759 / POC 7754. Clean break and hold above = structural shift, next upside objective 7803 Friday RTH high.
Tempo tells: Fast rejection at 7787-7793 with sellers through 7775 overnight HB = classic ZF-ONF short setup. Grind through 7793 with buyers absorbing = range extension to 7803 then 7820. Below 7745 Tuesday VAL = Tuesday's recovery failing, back toward 7710 weekly MA test.
Earnings — High Impact
| Timing | Tickers | Index relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Wed BMO | ABT, T, DHR, TMO, PM, ELV, CME | Healthcare + staples + telco |
| Wed AMC | TSLA, META, IBM, LRCX, TXN | Biggest night of the quarter · expect large Thu gap |
| Thu BMO | LMT, CMCSA, PG, BX, DOW | Staples + defence |
| Fri BMO | AXP, SLB | Credit + energy |
Risk management: Don't carry size into Wed close. TSLA + META are both routinely 5%+ movers on earnings. Combined impact can drive 1-2% overnight gap in ES. If still trading late Wed afternoon, consider flat or use options rather than futures to express a view.
Key Levels
| Type | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| R | 7897.50 | Oct 6 swing high · weekly R |
| R | 7803.25 | Friday RTH High |
| R | 7793 | Overnight High · ZF-ONF watch |
| R | 7791.50 | Tuesday RTH High |
| R | 7787 | 20DMA · stacked with ONH/Tue H |
| · | 7780.50 | Current (pre-RTH) |
| R | 7775 | Overnight Half-Back |
| R | 7773 | 50DMA (just below 20DMA) |
| R | 7771.25 | Tuesday VAH |
| S | 7759.00 | Tuesday close |
| S | 7757 | Overnight Low · ZF-ONF watch |
| S | 7754.25 | Tuesday POC |
| S | 7745.25 | Tuesday VAL |
| S | 7735.00 | Monday close |
| S | 7710.25 | Tuesday RTH Low · V-shape pivot |
| S | 7701 | Weekly 20MA · HTF defence (held Tue) |
| S | 7676 – 7677 | Friday RTH Low cluster · last structural floor |
Scenarios
Primary — Rejection at 7787-7793 cluster, fade back to Tuesday VA. Long overnight inventory + stacked overhead resistance = counter-auction DOWN at open. ZF-ONF short setup if ONH 7793 tested and fails. Target Tuesday close 7759 / POC 7754 cluster. Base case given inventory and overhead.
Secondary — Breakout through 7793, reclaim daily MAs, run to 7803. Buyers absorb at the overhead cluster, break through 20DMA + 50DMA together. Marks structural reversal of last week's break. First objective 7803 Friday RTH high, then 7820.
Low prob — Fail at 7745 Tue VAL, retest 7710 Tue low. Sellers push through Tuesday VA bottom, test Tuesday's low at 7710 (weekly MA defence line). V-shape failure would be bearish going into tech earnings tonight.
Tech earnings risk management: Afternoon tempo likely dries up as traders de-risk into TSLA + META. Reduce size from midday onwards. Flat into Wed close recommended. Thu will be a gap-and-react day.
This is not financial advice. All zones and scenarios are personal preparation for my own trading. Trade at your own risk.