ES review & plan
Thursday, 22 October 2026 · EPZ26 (Dec ES) · Pre-market read
Review — Zones & Last 3 Sessions
The chart defines this week's playing field between two tight clusters:
Upper resistance band 7791-7802: three stacked HTF references within 10 points — 20/10 RTH High 7791.75, ONH 7793, and 15/10 RTH High 7802.00. Wednesday rallied right into this band and closed 7799 at the top of it. The thin value above the band on prior days suggests these are "poor highs" prone to retest, not strong tops.
Mid-range pivot 7756.25 (ONL / recurring VAH): this level has acted as a flip pivot 4+ times in the past two weeks — Oct 20's VAH, Oct 16's VAH, prior overnight low. Behaviour tell: when price trades THROUGH 7756 with momentum, trend tends to continue; when it stalls here with slow tempo, it fades back.
Lower support band 7709-7717 at the weekly 20MA 7703: three structural support lines within 14 points — 20/10 RTH low 7709.75, 15/10 RTH low 7717.00, and weekly 20MA 7703. This zone has been defended FOUR times in the past week (Oct 15 flush, Oct 20 V-shape pivot, Oct 21 ETH, Thu Oct 22 overnight at 7710.25). Each test with V-shape recovery into the following session. Thin value at these lows = poor lows prone to retest, but the pattern of defence is clear so far.
Session narrative Oct 20 → Oct 22 overnight:
- Mon Oct 19: Quiet balance 7727-7773. First rest after last week's trend days.
- Tue Oct 20: V-shape day. Gap-down tested 7710 (right at weekly 20MA cluster), reversed hard, rallied to 7791, closed 7759.
- Wed Oct 21: Trend-up day on short covering ahead of TSLA/META. Opened above daily MAs, rallied through 20/10 RTH High 7791 and 15/10 RTH High 7802, hit 7812, closed 7799 near the top of the upper cluster.
- Overnight into Thu: TSLA/META reactions triggered a 89pt flush from 7799 to 7710.25 — hit the lower cluster EXACTLY, bounced to current 7723-7726. Fourth test of the weekly MA area, defended again.
What this tells us for today: market is caught between two well-defined clusters. All week has rhymed with "flush to lower band → V-shape recover → grind up to upper band → rejection." Today's test of the lower band is the fourth in a week. Either the pattern repeats (another V-recover setup toward 7756 pivot, then upper band) OR the fourth test is where buyers finally give up and the weekly 20MA 7703 breaks structurally. The thin value at both ends means fast moves if either cluster breaks.
Regime
Wednesday rallied into TSLA/META, then tech earnings sank the overnight. Wed closed 7799 (trend-up, p-shape, +40 from open). Overnight gapped down to 7710 — 89pt flush. Current 7726 after modest rebound off the low.
Weekly 20MA tested a THIRD time this week. Overnight low 7710 right at the 7700 cluster. Monday low, Tuesday low, and now Thursday overnight all defended at this zone. The HTF line is holding, but each test is a tell.
Short overnight inventory (+100%). Settle sits above the entire overnight range — base case counter-auction UP at open as buyers rebalance. Daily MAs now overhead again (20DMA 7789, 50DMA 7772).
Vol regime 1.08 — mild expansion. ATR(10) 71.69. Fourth 80pt+ overnight range in a week. High-vol regime fully entrenched.
Pre-Session Context
Wednesday: Trend-up day on short covering ahead of tech earnings. Opened above daily MAs, held, rallied to 7812, closed 7799. Profile p-shape — the short-covering tell.
Overnight (post-earnings): Clean gap-down from 7799. Flushed 89pt to 7710 (right at weekly 20MA defence), rebounded ~16pt to current 7726. Classic b-shape setup forming on reaction.
Open type: Open likely 7720-7735 depending on first ticks. Short inventory + classic counter-auction setup = buyers likely into first hour toward ON HB 7754 / Tuesday close 7759. Watch which side of 7735 Monday close holds first.
Tempo tells: Slow absorption at ON low area 7710 with buyers through 7735 = counter-auction playing out, target 7754-7772 50DMA zone. Fast rejection at 7735-7745 with sellers back through 7710 = tech earnings pain carries on, next test is weekly MA 7703 then 7676 Friday low. Vertical move through 7772 to reclaim 50DMA = short-cover rally fully resumes.
Earnings — Thursday Impact
| Timing | Tickers | Index relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Overnight | TSLA, META, IBM, LRCX, TXN | Already in the price — overnight gap already reacted |
| Thu BMO | LMT, CMCSA, PG, BX, DOW, HBAN | Staples + defence + credit · PG and BX most watched |
| Thu AMC | BE, DECK, NEM, VRSN, WDC | Mid-cap tech + consumer discretionary |
| Fri BMO | AXP, SLB | Credit + energy |
Tech earnings pain already reflected in overnight gap. Today's open is the market deciding whether yesterday's pain is a one-day event or a continuation signal. PG and BX pre-market can either reinforce the risk-off tone or offer defensive rotation support.
Key Levels
| Type | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| R | 7812.25 | Wednesday RTH High |
| R | 7810.50 | Wednesday VAH |
| R | 7803.25 | Friday RTH High |
| R | 7802.00 | Wednesday POC |
| R | 7799.00 | Wednesday close |
| R | 7798.75 | Overnight High · stacked |
| R | 7789 | 20DMA (lost overnight) |
| R | 7786.58 | Wednesday RTH VWAP |
| R | 7777.50 | Wednesday VAL |
| R | 7772 | 50DMA (lost overnight) |
| R | 7759.00 | Tuesday close |
| R | 7754.50 | Overnight Half-Back |
| R | 7735.00 | Monday close · immediate pivot |
| · | 7726.00 | Current (pre-RTH) |
| S | 7710.25 | Overnight Low = Tuesday RTH Low · ZF-ONF watch |
| S | 7703 | Weekly 20MA · HTF defence (3rd test this week) |
| S | 7676 – 7677 | Friday RTH Low cluster · last structural floor |
Scenarios
Primary — Counter-auction UP from 7710-7726 toward 7754 ON HB / 7772 50DMA. Short overnight inventory + overnight already flushed 89pt + weekly MA defended = buyers rebalance at open. First upside objective Monday close 7735, then Tuesday close 7759, then 7772 50DMA. ZF-R short setup activates at 7772 or Wednesday VAL 7777 if tempo stalls.
Secondary — Fail at 7735, retest ONL 7710 then weekly MA 7703. No counter-auction, tech earnings pain continues. Watch for ZF-ONF long at 7710/7703 cluster on first test with exhaustion signals. Below 7703 = weekly MA finally breaks, flush toward Friday low 7676.
Low prob — V-shape reversal back toward 7772 50DMA / 7799 Wed close. Market shrugs off tech earnings pain quickly, buyers aggressive. Would require strong defensive-sector earnings reactions (PG, BX) to catalyse. Market has been in two-day flush/recover rhythm all week — this would be another one.
Pattern note: This week has rhymed with last week — big down day, V-shape recover, grind higher, then flush again. Three weekly MA tests held so far. Fourth test (if it comes) is where the pattern typically either confirms or breaks.
This is not financial advice. All zones and scenarios are personal preparation for my own trading. Trade at your own risk.
