ES review & plan
Monday, 26 October 2026 · EPZ26 (Dec ES) · Pre-market read
Clock note: UK clocks went back to GMT on Sunday. US doesn't change until Sunday Nov 1. This week only, ES RTH is 13:30-20:00 UK (shifted 1hr earlier from standard 14:30-21:00). Reverts next week.
Regime
The weekly 20MA finally broke on Friday. Oct 23 was another trend-down day: 48pt range, closed 7660.75 (official settle 7659.75) — below weekly 20MA 7696. Three straight weekly MA tests held across last week (Mon, Tue, Thu overnight), but Friday pushed through on continued post-TSLA/META weakness. First confirmed structural break of the HTF line in six weeks.
Weekly recap (Oct 19-23): Mon balance → Tue V-shape → Wed trend-up (short covering) → Thu overnight gap-down on TSLA/META → Fri trend-down continuation through weekly MA. Net week change ~-45pt but with huge intraweek swings (ONH 7812 Wed to ONL 7648 Fri = 164pt total range).
Overnight rebounded. ONH 7698.50 is RIGHT AT the broken weekly MA 7696 cluster. ONL 7651.75. Range 46.75pt. Current 7683.50 upper half of range. LONG inventory (-65%) — settle below ON midpoint, overnight explored UP from Fri close.
Vol regime 1.11 — mild expansion. ATR(10) 74.85 (vs 65 two weeks ago). High-vol regime fully entrenched. Expect fast moves on event catalysts this week.
Pre-Session Context
Friday: Trend-down day. Gap-down open, sellers through to lows, closed near lows below weekly MA. b-shape profile confirmed liquidation.
Overnight: Classic recovery bounce. 47pt range higher. Current 7683.50 sits just below the broken weekly 20MA 7696. First test of broken MA from below is a key signal: hold = support reclaim possible, reject = HTF break confirmed.
Open type: Open 7680-7690 likely given current price. Watch which side of VWAP (will develop live) holds first 30 min. Long inventory suggests sellers at open to rebalance — but the overnight rebound structure argues for buyers trying to retest the broken MA.
Tempo tells: Reject at 7696-7698 cluster with sellers through 7675 ON HB = structural break confirmed, path toward 7651 ONL / 7648 Fri L. Reclaim 7696 with buyers through 7700 = short-cover squeeze back toward 7735 Mon close / 7759 Tue close. Grind in 7675-7695 = balance day inside Fri's VA.
Week Ahead — FOMC + Big Tech + Thu Data Cluster
| Day | UK Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders (Sep) | Medium · pre-RTH |
| Mon | 14:00 | CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) · New Home Sales | Medium |
| Tue AMC | — | Mag 7 earnings begin (watch calendar) | High |
| Wed | 18:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | Flat into event |
| Wed | 18:30 | Fed Press Conference (Powell) | Highest-impact move |
| Thu | 12:30 | Core PCE + GDP Advance Q3 + PCE + Personal Spending + Claims (all simultaneous) | Biggest data minute of quarter |
| Fri | 12:30 | Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q3) | High · wage inflation |
| Fri | 13:45 | Chicago PMI (Oct) | Low-medium |
Risk management: Mon-Tue tradeable with normal setups. Wed afternoon → flat into FOMC. Thu avoid pre-12:30 UK exposure; the Core PCE + GDP + PCE cluster has moved ES 30-50pt on single releases. Fri ECI + month-end flows.
Key Levels
| Type | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| R | 7812.25 | Wed Oct 21 RTH High · last week swing H |
| R | 7778 | 20DMA (far overhead) |
| R | 7764 | 50DMA (far overhead) |
| R | 7742.50 | Thursday RTH High |
| R | 7706.25 | Thursday close |
| R | 7698.50 | Overnight High · ZF-ONF watch |
| R | 7697.25 | Friday RTH High |
| R | 7696 | Weekly 20MA (BROKEN · now overhead) |
| R | 7687.12 | Overnight Half-Back |
| · | 7683.50 | Current (pre-RTH) |
| R | 7679 | Friday VAH |
| R | 7675.76 | Friday Full-Session VWAP |
| R | 7672.16 | Friday RTH VWAP |
| S | 7665.75 | Friday POC |
| S | 7660.75 | Friday RTH close |
| S | 7659.75 | Friday settle (official) |
| S | 7653.50 | Friday VAL |
| S | 7651.75 | Overnight Low · ZF-ONF watch |
| S | 7648.50 | Friday RTH Low |
| S | ~7600 | Round number · next downside objective |
Scenarios
Primary — Test and reject at broken weekly MA 7696-7698. Overnight has already carried price up to the ONH / broken MA / Fri RTH H cluster at 7696-7698. First RTH test is the key: if sellers reject at the stacked overhead, that's confirmation of HTF break with structural shift to lower highs. ZF-ONF short at ONH 7698.50 if first test fails with exhaustion signals. Target Fri settle 7660 / POC 7666.
Secondary — Break ONL 7651 and Fri RTH L 7648, flush toward 7600. If buyers fail to defend the 7651-7648 cluster, bears take control with no HTF support until 7600 round. ZF-ONF long only if first test shows exhaustion; otherwise trade with the break not against it.
Low prob — Reclaim weekly MA 7696, squeeze toward 7706 Thu close / 7742 Thu RTH H. Strong buying through the overhead cluster would mark a false break of the weekly MA and short-cover squeeze potential. Pre-FOMC positioning could support this. Requires sustained buyers above 7700 with volume.
Event week risk: No carries into FOMC Wed 18:00. No AM exposure Thu into Core PCE + GDP 12:30. Weekly MA break is the structural story but all bets off on Wed-Thu depending on Fed tone and data prints.
This is not financial advice. All zones and scenarios are personal preparation for my own trading. Trade at your own risk.