ES review & plan
Veterans Day saw futures volume dip to 1.1m contracts, though share volume was only marginally lower than the prior day at 3.64bn shares trading on NYSE. The strong sell-off in Crude weighed heavily on the market yesterday as you can see with the relative weakness in the energy sector.
Here's a look at the order flow into the RTH high where buyers dried up and aggressive selling stepped in:
Overnight so far the range is 2065.25-2077.50 versus settlement at 2069.00. The zones are the similar to yesterday and the continued attempt to push towards Monday's lows could lead to a breakout (which could be false). The 2051.25 is the next major level below. Above 2079.00 longs have more control and can put pressure on the upside once again.
ES review & plan
Yesterday opened by the prior day's value area low and within the lower distribution. There was an attempt towards the prior low but buyers held firm and the market moved slowly higher in a rotational fashion.
Volume was low at 1.2m contracts and 3.7bn shares on NYSE. Cumulative delta remained positive and trending higher for the regular trading hours, showing a lack of aggressive selling after the prior day's drive lower.
Overnight has moved higher so far and climbing, with the range is 2075.00-85.25 versus settle at 2078.00. The zones of interest for today are below and my main expectation is a push higher through Monday's spike and rotation lower to retest support.
ES review & plan
We saw very negative internals from the open yesterday, which was at the overnight low. The NYSE advanced/decline was at -2300 by mid-morning and it looked like we could see a trend day into the close. However, the 2064.25 low from Nov 1st became the target, which saw a 2.25 point run through leaving a buying tail and a late day squeeze popped to the prior day's low before settling within the initial balance at 2073.00.
Volume was 1.8m contracts and a relatively low 3.8bn shares on NYSE, considering the drop.
The next key level below is the 2051.25 low where we may see recent long swing trades trapped underneath.
I would expect to see an attempt at yesterday's low again today, given the driving nature we saw. However, if the market can hold above 2072.00 initially and 2079.00 more importantly, we could see some aggressive short covering.
ES review & plan
Friday's much stronger than expected employment report sent bond yields sharply higher and the dollar rallying, though stocks were left almost unchanged on the day after some early volatility.
Overall on the week, value has shifted higher with most time and volume trading between 2095.75-96.75. This will be an important area for bulls to gain ground above going into this week. The bullish bias remains and ideally for longs the market holds last weeks value area low (see below).
Overnight the range is currently 2086.00-2097.75 versus settle at 2093.75. A bull flag continuation pattern is forming, though we may see a test of the lower end of this channel still if the current overnight lows don't hold in regular trading hours.
Areas of interest for support and resistance in green and red dotted lines. The micro bull/bear I'm using today is 2094.75.
ES review & plan
Yesterday closed nearly unchanged but we saw an attempt to push lower fail and trade was balanced from mid morning onwards. Volume was 1.5m contracts and nearly 4bn shares on NYSE.
Today's employment report is the main event and last months reaction after a much lower than expected NFP and average hourly earnings was to sell-off 45 points and rally 63 after the market had slowly squeezed higher overnight.
The Globex chart below shows the areas of interest for today. The bias remains bullish unless we see real signs of liquidation and very negative market internals. I'm using 2089.50 as the micro bull/bear today, being the afternoon pullback low and value low yesterday.
ES review & plan
Volume was steady yesterday at 1.5m contracts and 4bn shares traded on NYSE. The overnight range was rejected for the most part with value overlapping lower prior to Tuesday, though just staying within the range to the tick. Cumulative delta remained negative for the session, as were other market internals. The fact that the prior day's low was not taken out stopped a more aggressive sell-off. This now leaves the 2090.50 as a weak low in profile terms.
The top of value coincides with yesterday's overnight low at 2100.50, and is a micro bull/bear level going into today. Laggard shorts from yesterday will be trapped above there and we could see some forcing action as they are squeezed out above. Holding below there puts the weak low as the next target at 2090.50 with next support in the 2085-87 area from Monday.
Overnight so far has ranged between 2091.50-2104.00 versus settlement at 2094.75, with the market rallying from near the lows for the past few hours.
The Globex chart below shows anticipated moves/reactions between the initial support/resistance zones marked in green/red dotted lines, around the micro bull/bear in blue.
Jobless claims and Productivity and Costs are due at 07:30 ct, but clearly the main event is tomorrow's employment report, especially in light of Yellen's comments yesterday. Bonds continue to be weak with the rising dollar as potential for a Fed hike and ECB easing in the same month becomes a possibility.
ES review & plan
The bull run continued on volume of 1.3m minis and a decent 4.2bn shares on NYSE. The biggest pullback was at the end of the day with day time frame longs closing out.
Crude had a big helping hand with it's strong rally lifting the energy sector. Weakness continued in bonds, with the 30yr hitting 3% and the dollar index rallying.
Value was overlapping higher and until we see rejection of yesterday's value area, it's hard to make a case to short this, and markets can appear overbought for a long time. There is still an unfinished upside auction at the all time highs which is now extremely close. However, a lot has been priced in ahead of the employment report on Friday, shorts have been obliterated on the way up and that takes out potential buying interest at these levels. A break should target the 2079 composite high volume node if we see signs of liquidation. If buyers remain in control, we should see support within yesterday's value area.
Overnight the range is currently 2100.50-2108.75 versus settle at 2103.00.
ES review & plan
Yesterday was a slow grind higher with bullish market internals and lower than average volume. The high looks unfinished, though we may see a test of the top of the spike at 2081.75 for support today before an attempt to push through 2100.
Overnight has pulled back with a range currently of 2089.00-2097.25. The longer time frame remains bullish so until there is evidence that longs have given up, the pullbacks are potential buying opportunities.
ES review & plan
Friday saw the overnight trade as high 2094.75, which was the key resistance from the Aug 17th high. Price failed to hold above the overnight low for the majority of the day, though shorts were squeezed mid session before another sell-off. Volume was 1.7m contracts and 4.2bn shares on NYSE traded on the last day of the month.
The daily chart shows the market trading around the composite VPOC at 2079.00. It's quite feasible that the market rotates lower to the low volume 2045-50 area to find responsive buyers before making another attempt at Friday's overnight high. This is also an area where a lot of sell stops will be sitting from the swing low at 2051.75 on Oct 27th.
Holding above 2079.00 puts longs in a stronger position to push for the highs again.
ES review & plan
Volume dropped slightly as did volatility yesterday following the FOMC day. The market stayed in a 10 point range for most of the day until a late pop above the prior high, which didn't have any legs.
The poor low that is left has a good chance of being taken out to test the naked VPOC at 2072.50.
1.4m contracts traded and 4bn shares on NYSE. It's the last trading day of the month today and this is how the underlying market and sectors have under/out performed relatively:
Overnight has seen an attempt to push higher, which has reversed at the 2094.75 Aug 17th high (see key resistance levels from yesterday). The range is currently 2082.50-2094.75 versus settle at 2083.00.
The trend remains bullish, helped with trapped shorts getting squeezed trying to fade this rally. Shorts getting taken out of the market also removes a lot of buying power, so short, sharp liquidation breaks are possible while natural longs wait for more advantageous levels to buy.
The highest volume traded at price on the composite profile is at 2079.00, so we may see this act as a magnet on breaks. The market wants to continue pushing levels towards the low volume 2100 area, so we may see that attempted today. Holding below 2079.00 puts a weaker slant on the day and there is the 2072.50 naked VPOC to test initially.