ES review & plan
The first full trade day since last Wednesday and the end of the month saw fairly slow and heavy price action. Volume was fairly low at 1.3m contracts though underlying share volume on NYSE was relatively high at 4.28bn. The low looks incomplete and buyers will need to push and hold above the base of yesterday's spike to trap shorts for a run higher.
A look at the chart below shows the current area of balance which has formed value above the composite VPOC, showing bull strength. Failure to hold the 2079.00 level will likely see shorts press the downside to shake out weak longs.
Overnight the range is currently 2083.50-2092.75 versus settle at 2079.75. My zones below have hardly changed for today. Until the market can hold above/below the nearest zones, there is likely to be choppy trade within the value area of the current short term balance shown above (i.e 2080.50-91.50)
ES review & plan
Yesterday saw a failed breakdown attempt from the balance of the prior 3 days. The overnight news related to the Russian jet being downed did not escalate any further so we didn't see any panic selling. Volume was a fairly average 1.5m contracts and 3.8bn shares on NYSE.
Overnight so far the range is 2082.25-92.50, versus settlement at 2084.75. Bulls showed strength yesterday, though if price starts to accept below yesterday's value area I'm anticipating a move to the naked VPOC at 2062.75. If, however, the market holds well above the 2084 area, it's a sign that bulls have regained control and will be looking to take out the poor high from Monday and move higher towards the upper zones shown below.
ES review & plan
Yesterday opened within Friday's range and was slow and choppy for much of the session. Volume was very low and there was no follow through to the early attempt above the overnight high. The eventual break found responsive buyers at Thursday's VPOC and the composite VPOC at 2079.00.
Volume was just 971k contracts and 3.5bn shares on NYSE.
I'm keeping the micro bull/bear at 2078.00 for today and expecting a test of the naked VPOC at 2062.75 if the market holds below there. Below that there is another nVPOC at 2049.25 from 11/17 RTH and a settlement gap.
Regular Trading Hours with day and composite volume profiles:
Overnight we've seen a reactionary break lower following news that Turkey has downed a Russian jet in it's airspace. The range is currently 2065.50-2087.25 versus settlement at 2084.25. This could be a headline driven day plus today's economic calendar. Looking at zones below for potential engagement/targets.
ES review & plan
Friday was another small range and low volume day which gapped above the prior day's range on open and closed the gap later in the day. Market internals began the day very strong and then failed to continue.
1.2m contracts traded and 3.9bn shares on NYSE.
Overnight has ranged between 2082.00-2092.50 versus settle at 2088.75
The market is trading close to the composite VPOC at 2079.00 and it has been noticeable how trade has slowed down in this area. I'm using 2078.00 as today's micro bull/bear level as would expect this to hold if bulls are to maintain control today.
If sellers can hold below 2078.00 there could be some pressure on longs from the past couple of days and we may see some short term liquidation, initially targeting the naked VPOC at 2062.75.
Zones I'm using for today are below
ES review & plan
Yesterday was a low volume, small range day. 1.3m contracts traded and 3.6bn shares on NYSE. Sellers were more aggressive for the session, as can be seen in the cumulative delta.
The area is trading around the composite VPOC, which is currently at 2079.00. The fast acceleration higher into this prior area of two-sided trade has slowed things down for now. This is going to be an important pivot for longs or shorts to dominate above or below.
Overnight so far the range is 2076.00-85.75 versus settlement at 2079.25. Longs still have the overall bias and am expecting at least a test of yesterday's overnight high and potentially a push through to the other zones shown. A break below yesterday's low could see some short term liquidation and will watch the zones for reaction. 2063.50 remains my micro bull/bear for today.
ES review & plan
Yesterday we saw value initially begin to overlap higher to Tuesday and then a breakout from the short term range squeezing shorts. Volume was fairly light though considering the range at 1.5m contracts and 3.9bn shares on NYSE.
Below you can see the high volume into the close around 2080/81 which maybe an area of support for today.This also coincides with the bigger picture high volume area on the composite profile.
The pullback to 2066.00 after the initial breakout sits at a low volume area yesterday, forming a shelf in yesterday's profile where buyers may step in.
Overnight so far has seen continuation higher with the range 2077.75-2089.25 versus settlement at 2079.75. Bulls remain in control for now. I have today's micro bull/bear at 2063.50 and will be looking for long opportunities on pullbacks above there in the current context.
ES review & plan
Yesterday finished with value higher after rallying above Monday's high with some signs of continuation, though failing to break through Thursday's high and seeing a news driven reversal after a bomb threat at a football international which Angela Merkel was attending.
Volume in the minis was 1.6m but NYSE share volume was comparatively higher at 4.3bn.
Overnight the range currently is 2043.00-2051.75 versus settlement at 2049.00
2041.50 is my micro bull/bear for today and the 2052.75 is the major bull/bear. If buyers can hold above 2051.25, the weak high and gap are the next objectives.
ES review & plan
Yesterday opened at the prior day's RTH low and after a brief dip below, rallied strongly with the only real pullback in the morning. Volume was not that high though at 1.7m contracts and 3.7bn shares on NYSE. The ES globex range was just over 50 points.
As mentioned previously, if the market was to hold above Friday's high volume area then shorts were going to be in trouble. We saw what looked like forcing action, leaving several anomalies in the profile which I would expect to get revisited.
Overnight has been moving higher, with the range 2045.75-2059.25 versus settlement at 2048.00. I'm expecting some pullback in RTH to repair the anomalies from yesterday before a move higher. Zones of interest for today shown below.
ES review & plan
Friday opened and failed by 1 tick to fill the range gap from Thursday. The drive lower pushed through the single prints from the 10/22 breakout day, with the early low 1 tick below that day's RTH low. Internals were negative for the first 45 mins and then we saw a momentum reversal. The rally pushed through the open by a couple of ticks and then carried on lower for the rest of the session.
Volume was high at 2.1m contracts and 4.2bn shares on NYSE.
Overnight the markets have been reacting to the atrocities over the weekend. Initially moving below 2000, ES has rallied with European bourses. The range is currently 1998.50-2025.50 versus settlement at 2018.50. Europe is on high terror alert so we could see some erratic headline driven moves. I'm using the zones below as potential targets/engagement zones with today's micro bull/bear at 2022.00. Trapped shorts above the high volume area from Friday could see an attempt back into Thursday's range. If the market holds below Friday's IB low at 2022.00, I think we may see an attempt to take out today's overnight low.
ES review & plan
The move yesterday began in the overnight session, pushing down through the November range. The market was short overnight and after the open was choppy for the first couple of hours before an attempt to fill the gap above and squeeze shorts failed to follow through.
2051.25 was the bull/bear swing low from 10/27 and also a composite LVN. We saw stops run through initially down to 2049.00 then a rally back to the VWAP/VPOC area, as high as 2057.50 (1 tick below the open) for three separate periods (see above). The market one time framed lower for the remainder of the day.
Overnight has moved lower, with the range currently 2034.00-46.00 versus settlement at 2040.50. The 2034.25-37.50 zone will be an important one for bulls to hold as is visible below.
The rally from the September swing low to the 11/3 high has the 38.2% fib retracement at 2015.00. Under there the next major swing low is at 2007.50, the 50% fib at 1985.75 and swing low at 1982.50. If the longer term bulls are still in control I wouldn't expect to hold below the 2034.25-37.50 zone. Crude has been having a negative drag on the market for the past week with the energy sector down 5% versus a 2.5% fall in the S&P so worth keeping an eye on CL.
If we see a rally today, the profile references from yesterday may be resistance on first test. Above 2051.25 and especially 2057.50 as highlighted on the top profile chart, shorts are potentially in trouble.