Wednesday Prep
Yesterday's overnight move back to the CHVN at 2152.75 following the failed break out. The RTH opened at that level and popped up a point before the drive lower, straight through the high volume support area from last Friday. After making a temporary poor low in E/F periods, which had breached the recent balance low at 2132.75, we saw a short covering pop to a tick below the initial balance low and passive absorption was evident by sellers before the next leg down.
Overnight so far the range is 2129.75-40.75 with the majority of volume traded below yesterday's VPOC.
I'm using 2132.75-34.50 as the bull/bear zone for today but would still expect sellers to be dominant on rallies into the first two resistance zones. Yesterday was an impulsive move and my primary expectation would be for sellers to attempt a drive lower on pullbacks. A move back above the 2146.25 level could see some aggressive short covering up to the 2152.75 CHVN. Zones for today below:
Tuesday Prep
Quiet holiday volume (sub 1m contracts) and a small RTH range followed an overnight rally which failed to gather momentum. Overnight the market has fallen back to the CHVN at 2152.75 which is an important pivot following the attempted break higher yesterday.
The overnight range is currently 2151.75-2160.75 having sold off from the highs soon after opening. 2159.00 was yesterday's overnight high and settlement price and I would expect sellers to be active at that level.
Overnight resistance zone at 2155.50-56.50 and initial support zone at 2148.75-51.75. Breaking initial support could see an attempted strong directional move lower depending on volume, order flow and market internals. If the market can regain the 2159 level and hold above, next target is 2166, where responsive sellers could step in (CLVN).
Thursday Prep
Yesterday saw most of the movement happen pre-market with a turnaround rally and had a slow balanced RTH session holding above the overnight high predominantly. There was a failed late attempt to take out the prior day's high.
Overnight the range is currently 2147.50-2155.75 with no news of tapering from the ECB, a spike above $50 on crude and multi-decade lows in jobless claims rallying the dollar and seeing further pressure on bonds.
Not much change to the zone areas today. The market is likely to remain choppy within the current week's value area at 2149.00-56.25. Any sustained breaks either way are less likely ahead of tomorrow's employment report with 2152.50 the composite high volume node of the current balance area where the market may gravitate towards in absence of market moving news.
Wednesday Prep
Value shifted lower yesterday after a volatile morning session around unsubstantiated rumours of tapering in the ECB's bond buying program. We saw responsive buying off yesterday's 2135.75-37.25 range support zone, though this may be a temporary bounce until the market can regain the 2152.50 level.
Overnight the range is currently 2141.00-47.25, within the lower half of yesterday's range.
My zones for today:
Tuesday Prep
A very balanced session yesterday with low volume and news flow giving few decent opportunities. The market traded around the composite high volume node at 2152.50, which is a useful short term pivot also marking yesterday's overnight low.
The 4hr chart with custom profiles below shows the key areas of intermediate support and resistance.
Overnight so far the range is 2153.00-59.75, holding above the CHVN at 2152.50 which is neutral/bullish. Zones of interest for me today are below. 2159 and 2166 are two CLVNs I would expect response from sellers, and a squeeze if holding above 2166 to press for the 2172.75 swing high/CHVN and beyond. Acceptance back below 2152.50 puts likelihood of rotation lower to repair yesterday's poor low and potentially test the larger time frame support areas below.
Friday Prep
Yesterday opened within the upper distribution of the prior day and moved above the prior RTH high by 2 ticks with divergence in the order flow before rejecting the breakout and reversing. The aggressive move lower was driven primarily by a major sell-off in Deutsche Bank shares and the associated news, though the market managed to form a lower distribution and POC/VPOC within the prior day's range. The distributions are split with single prints between 2154.00-55.25.
Overnight took out the low from yesterday, after the European open, and has climbed steadily since. The range is currently 2135.75-2149.50.
Overnight support zones at 2142.75-44.25 and 2135.75-37.25.
Key support at 2131.25-32.75 - holding below here could put the market into longer time frame long liquidation mode.
Initial resistance at 2151.50-23.75 - if overnight rally sees a rejection of this zone after the open, it puts increased likelihood of yesterday's and the overnight low being taken out. Expecting strong correlation with Deutsche Bank shares throughout the session in absence of other market moving information.
Today's Zones:
Thursday Prep
Yesterday opened and failed to take out the overnight high, leaving a poor high early on. Back inside the prior range saw prices slip back to around the prior mid, value area low and composite low volume area before selling dried up. A break above the lunchtime balance area squeezed shorts and the OPEC news on production cuts led to an oil driven rally back into last friday's range.
The short term bullish move is heading back up towards the all time highs, though there are a few areas of longer term resistance ahead within the larger balance area currently in.
2157-59 area is the first area of key support for longs to hold. Acceptance below there could see some long liquidation and rotation lower to the 2152.50 chvn and current week's vpoc.
Breaking and holding above the 2166-67 resistance would continue to pressure shorts. The 2166 clvn may become support on a pullback from a break.
Zones for today:
Wednesday Prep
Review
Very balanced profile on fairly light volume (1.38m) with negative trending cumulative delta (-52k at RTH close), inside prior day's range.
RTH 1 min below with yesterday's zones:
The BoJ announcement overnight saw an initial break lower, which was short lived, and a rally to re-test yesterday's high at the initial resistance zone.
I'm keeping the zones as they are for today ahead of the FOMC announcement - depending on what is said, there remains a large open range gap above from 2158.00-69.25. If we see a sell-off down to the 2115.75-17.25 zone and it fails to hold then we could see sellers target a move lower to the 2080 area.
Today's Zones:
Tuesday Prep
The early move above last Thursday's poor high failed to bring in sustained buying and once the market accepted back inside the 2144.25 overnight high we saw long liquidation and strong selling to close the lower range gap from Friday and push through the 2129 naked vpoc. The near 30k drop in cumulative delta and extreme TICK readings saw late sellers trapped and an aggressive short covering rally left a decent buying tail on the day.
The overnight range so far is 2130.75-42.00 and the zones for today are little changed.
Monday Prep
240 min with custom volume profiles
The break lower this month has formed a consolidating triangle pattern which the market is attempting to break out of overnight and faces resistance at the composite low volume area shown above.
The week has opened above last week's value area and is currently testing my initial resistance zone at 2143.50-45.00. If we see responsive selling there, overnight support is at 2138.00-39.50 followed by the 2131.00-34.25 zone, which could still see buyers take control.
Acceptance below 2131.00 would signal short term failure by longs and would expect shorts to target the zones below.
Acceptance above the initial resistance zone would signal a short covering rally and attempt to take out the 2156 swing high from last week. The RTH range gap from 8-9th Sept remains open between 2158.00-2169.25.
Overnight & RTH Profiles